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Galway Utd vs Derry City Prediction— Ireland - Premier Division

Matchday 21 ·Friday, June 19, 2026, 18:45

Galway Utd

PPG 1.22 · HOME

LAST 5

DDDWD

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Derry City

PPG 0.80 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDWLD

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.9% vs bookmaker-implied 56.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.6%0-19.6%0-26.1%0-32.6%0-4+1.1%1 1-010.0%1-112.6%1-28.0%1-33.4%1-4+1.4%2 2-06.6%2-18.3%2-25.2%2-32.2%2-4+0.9%3 3-02.9%3-13.6%3-22.3%3-31.0%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-11.6%4+-21.0%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.8% 32.8% 3.05 +9.2%

Draw 27.4% 30.8% 3.25 -6.6%

Away win 36.9% 43.5% 2.30 -15.1%

Over 2.5 53.7% 48.8% 2.05 +10.1%

Over 3.5 31.8% 27.0% 3.70 +17.7%

BTTS 55.9% 56.5% 1.77 -1.1%

Home O1.5 43.0% 35.7% 2.80 +20.4%

Away O1.5 34.4% 43.5% 2.30 -20.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 87 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 36%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -10.4%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 27%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob55.9%

A 37% / xG 1.3-1.3 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.6%

#2 0–0 7.6%

#3 2–1✓ 8.3%

#4 1–0 10.0%

#5 1–2 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Galway Utd1.3

Derry City1.3

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.7% · O3.5 PROB 31.8%

Form & verdict PPG

GALWAY UTD · PPG 1.22

DERRY CITY · PPG 0.80

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.22) > Away POOR (0.80)

Win probability 1X2

Galway Utd (H) 35.8%

ODDS 3.05 · IMPLIED 32.8% EV +9.2%

Draw 27.4%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -6.6%

Derry City (A) 36.9%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV -15.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Galway Utd face Derry City in Ireland - Premier Division on Friday, June 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Galway Utd a 36% chance, the draw 27% and Derry City 37%, so Derry City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Galway Utd and 1.3 for Derry City (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Galway Utd are averaging 1.22 points per game versus 0.80 for Derry City. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +20.4%. This match finished 2-1.

Galway Utd vs Derry City Prediction— Ireland - Premier Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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