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Galway Utd vs Derry City Prediction— Ireland - Premier Division

Regular Season - 21 ·Friday, June 19, 2026, 18:45

Galway Utd

PPG 1.22 · HOME

UPCOMING

Derry City

PPG 0.80 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.9% vs bookmaker-implied 56.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.6%0-19.6%0-26.1%0-32.6%0-4+1.1%1 1-010.0%1-112.6%1-28.0%1-33.4%1-4+1.4%2 2-06.6%2-18.3%2-25.2%2-32.2%2-4+0.9%3 3-02.9%3-13.6%3-22.3%3-31.0%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-11.6%4+-21.0%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 35.8% 3.05 +9.2%

Draw 27.4% 3.25 -6.6%

Away win 36.9% 2.30 -15.1%

Over 2.5 53.7% 2.05 +10.1%

Over 3.5 31.8% 3.70 +17.7%

BTTS 55.9% 1.77 -1.1%

Win probability 1X2

Galway Utd (H) 35.8%

ODDS 3.05 · IMPLIED 32.8% EV +9.2%

Draw 27.4%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -6.6%

Derry City (A) 36.9%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV -15.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 48%

ROI 28.3%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 27%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob55.9%

H 36% / xG 1.3-1.3 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.6%

#2 0–0 7.6%

#3 2–1 8.3%

#4 1–0 10.0%

#5 1–2 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Galway Utd1.3

Derry City1.3

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.7% · O3.5 PROB 31.8%

Form & verdict PPG

GALWAY UTD · PPG 1.22

DERRY CITY · PPG 0.80

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.22) > Away POOR (0.80)

Match Preview & Prediction

Galway Utd face Derry City in Ireland - Premier Division on Friday, June 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Galway Utd a 36% chance, the draw 27% and Derry City 37%, so Derry City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Galway Utd and 1.3 for Derry City (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Galway Utd are averaging 1.22 points per game versus 0.80 for Derry City. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +20.4%.

Galway Utd vs Derry City Prediction— Ireland - Premier Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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