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Drogheda Utd vs Shelbourne Prediction— Ireland - Premier Division

Regular Season - 21 ·Friday, June 19, 2026, 18:45

Drogheda Utd

PPG 1.30 · HOME

UPCOMING

Shelbourne

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.9% vs bookmaker-implied 56.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.7%0-19.9%0-27.2%0-33.5%0-4+1.8%1 1-08.3%1-112.2%1-28.9%1-34.3%1-4+2.2%2 2-05.1%2-17.5%2-25.5%2-32.7%2-4+1.4%3 3-02.1%3-13.1%3-22.3%3-31.1%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-11.2%4+-20.9%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 32.3% 3.80 +22.7%

Draw 25.5% 3.50 -6.5%

Away win 42.2% 1.92 -19.0%

Over 2.5 54.0% 1.95 +5.3%

Over 3.5 32.6% 3.45 +12.5%

BTTS 55.9% 1.77 -1.1%

Win probability 1X2

Drogheda Utd (H) 32.3%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV +22.7%

Draw 25.5%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -6.5%

Shelbourne (A) 42.2%

ODDS 1.92 · IMPLIED 52.1% EV -19.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 48%

ROI 28.3%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 31%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob55.9%

A 42% / xG 1.2-1.5 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.2%

#2 1–2 8.9%

#3 0–0 6.7%

#4 0–1 9.9%

#5 2–1 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Drogheda Utd1.2

Shelbourne1.5

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 54.0% · O3.5 PROB 32.6%

Form & verdict PPG

DROGHEDA UTD · PPG 1.30

SHELBOURNE · PPG 2.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs Home AVERAGE (1.30)

Match Preview & Prediction

Drogheda Utd face Shelbourne in Ireland - Premier Division on Friday, June 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Drogheda Utd a 32% chance, the draw 26% and Shelbourne 42%, so Shelbourne are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Drogheda Utd and 1.5 for Shelbourne (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Drogheda Utd are averaging 1.30 points per game versus 2.00 for Shelbourne. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +37.3%.

Drogheda Utd vs Shelbourne Prediction— Ireland - Premier Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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