Today / Ireland - Premier Division / Drogheda Utd vs Shelbourne

Drogheda Utd vs Shelbourne Prediction— Ireland - Premier Division

Matchday 21 ·Friday, June 19, 2026, 18:45

Drogheda Utd

PPG 1.30 · HOME

LAST 5

DDDLL

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Shelbourne

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWLLD

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.9% vs bookmaker-implied 56.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.7%0-19.9%0-27.2%0-33.5%0-4+1.8%1 1-08.3%1-112.2%1-28.9%1-34.3%1-4+2.2%2 2-05.1%2-17.5%2-25.5%2-32.7%2-4+1.4%3 3-02.1%3-13.1%3-22.3%3-31.1%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-11.2%4+-20.9%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 32.3% 26.3% 3.80 +22.7%

Draw 25.5% 28.6% 3.50 -6.5%

Away win 42.2% 52.1% 1.92 -19.0%

Over 2.5 54.0% 51.3% 1.95 +5.3%

Over 3.5 32.6% 29.0% 3.45 +12.5%

BTTS 55.9% 56.5% 1.77 -1.1%

Home O1.5 42.9% 31.3% 3.20 +37.3%

Away O1.5 49.7% 50.0% 2.00 -0.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 87 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 36%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -10.4%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 31%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob55.9%

A 42% / xG 1.2-1.5 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.2%

#2 1–2 8.9%

#3 0–0 6.7%

#4 0–1 9.9%

#5 2–1 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Drogheda Utd1.2

Shelbourne1.5

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 54.0% · O3.5 PROB 32.6%

Form & verdict PPG

DROGHEDA UTD · PPG 1.30

SHELBOURNE · PPG 2.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs Home AVERAGE (1.30)

Win probability 1X2

Drogheda Utd (H) 32.3%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV +22.7%

Draw 25.5%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -6.5%

Shelbourne (A) 42.2%

ODDS 1.92 · IMPLIED 52.1% EV -19.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Drogheda Utd face Shelbourne in Ireland - Premier Division on Friday, June 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Drogheda Utd a 32% chance, the draw 26% and Shelbourne 42%, so Shelbourne are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Drogheda Utd and 1.5 for Shelbourne (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Drogheda Utd are averaging 1.30 points per game versus 2.00 for Shelbourne. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +37.3%. This match finished 2-2.

Drogheda Utd vs Shelbourne Prediction— Ireland - Premier Division

Match Preview & Prediction

More Ireland - Premier Division Predictions