Today / Belarus - Premier League / Naftan vs Baranovichi

Naftan vs Baranovichi Prediction— Belarus - Premier League

Regular Season - 12 ·Friday, June 19, 2026, 15:00

Naftan

PPG 0.50 · HOME

UPCOMING

Baranovichi

PPG 1.17 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.4 puts the goal expectation near the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.2%0-113.0%0-29.2%0-34.3%0-4+2.1%1 1-08.9%1-112.6%1-28.9%1-34.2%1-4+2.0%2 2-04.3%2-16.1%2-24.3%2-32.0%2-4+1.0%3 3-01.4%3-12.0%3-21.4%3-30.7%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.6%4+-20.4%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 28.9% — —

Draw 24.9% — —

Away win 46.2% — —

Over 2.5 53.5% — —

Over 3.5 32.6% — —

BTTS 52.6% — —

Win probability 1X2

Naftan (H) 28.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 24.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Baranovichi (A) 46.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

League track record ↗

Based on 32 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 28%

Score Hit 38%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 25%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob52.6%

A 46% / xG 1.0-1.4 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.6%

#2 0–1 13.0%

#3 0–0 9.2%

#4 0–2 9.2%

#5 1–2 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Naftan1.0

Baranovichi1.4

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 32.6%

Form & verdict PPG

NAFTAN · PPG 0.50

BARANOVICHI · PPG 1.17

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: AVERAGE form (1.17) vs Home POOR (0.50)

Match Preview & Prediction

Naftan face Baranovichi in Belarus - Premier League on Friday, June 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Naftan a 29% chance, the draw 25% and Baranovichi 46%, so Baranovichi are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Naftan and 1.4 for Baranovichi (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Naftan are averaging 0.50 points per game versus 1.17 for Baranovichi.

Naftan vs Baranovichi Prediction— Belarus - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

More Belarus - Premier League Predictions