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Dnepr Mogilev vs Arsenal D. Prediction— Belarus - Premier League

Regular Season - 11 ·Sunday, June 14, 2026, 15:00

Dnepr Mogilev

PPG 0.75 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Arsenal D.

PPG 0.80 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.3% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.0%0-111.9%0-27.1%0-32.8%0-4+1.1%1 1-011.1%1-113.2%1-27.9%1-33.1%1-4+1.2%2 2-06.2%2-17.4%2-24.4%2-31.7%2-4+0.7%3 3-02.3%3-12.7%3-21.6%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-11.0%4+-20.6%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.6% 47.6% 2.10 -25.2%

Draw 28.2% 32.3% 3.10 -7.5%

Away win 36.2% 32.3% 3.10 +12.2%

Over 2.5 48.9% 51.3% 1.95 -4.6%

Over 3.5 28.1% 30.9% 3.24 -5.4%

BTTS 52.3% 57.8% 1.73 -9.5%

Home O1.5 37.8% 46.7% 2.14 -19.1%

Away O1.5 32.9% 33.4% 2.99 -1.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 33%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -100.0%

Bet Hit 0%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 27%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob52.3%

D 28% / xG 1.1-1.2 / U2.5 49% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.2%

#2 0–0 10.0%

#3 0–1✓ 11.9%

#4 1–0 11.1%

#5 1–2 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Dnepr Mogilev1.1

Arsenal D.1.2

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 48.9% · O3.5 PROB 28.1%

Form & verdict PPG

DNEPR MOGILEV · PPG 0.75

ARSENAL D. · PPG 0.80

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.75), Away POOR (0.80)

Win probability 1X2

Dnepr Mogilev (H) 35.6%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -25.2%

Draw 28.2%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -7.5%

Arsenal D. (A) 36.2%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +12.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Dnepr Mogilev face Arsenal D. in Belarus - Premier League on Sunday, June 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Dnepr Mogilev a 36% chance, the draw 28% and Arsenal D. 36%, so Arsenal D. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Dnepr Mogilev and 1.2 for Arsenal D. (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 49% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Dnepr Mogilev are averaging 0.75 points per game versus 0.80 for Arsenal D.. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +12.2%. This match finished 0-1.

Dnepr Mogilev vs Arsenal D. Prediction— Belarus - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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