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Dnepr Mogilev vs Arsenal D. Prediction— Belarus - Premier League

Belarus - Premier League · Regular Season - 11 · Sunday, June 14, 2026, 15:00

Dnepr Mogilev

PPG 0.75 · HOME

UPCOMING

Arsenal D.

PPG 0.80 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.3% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.0%0-111.9%0-27.1%0-32.8%0-4+1.1%1 1-011.1%1-113.2%1-27.9%1-33.1%1-4+1.2%2 2-06.2%2-17.4%2-24.4%2-31.7%2-4+0.7%3 3-02.3%3-12.7%3-21.6%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-11.0%4+-20.6%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 35.6% 2.10 -25.2%

Draw 28.2% 3.10 -7.5%

Away win 36.2% 3.10 +12.2%

Over 2.5 48.9% 1.95 -4.6%

Over 3.5 28.1% 3.24 -5.4%

BTTS 52.3% 1.73 -9.5%

Win probability 1X2

Dnepr Mogilev (H) 35.6%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -25.2%

Draw 28.2%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -7.5%

Arsenal D. (A) 36.2%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +12.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 30 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 30%

Score Hit 33%

Hunt pick CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 27%HUNT CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob52.3%

D 28% / xG 1.1-1.2 / U2.5 49% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.2%

#2 0–0 10.0%

#3 0–1 11.9%

#4 1–0 11.1%

#5 1–2 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Dnepr Mogilev1.1

Arsenal D.1.2

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 48.9% · O3.5 PROB 28.1%

Form & verdict PPG

DNEPR MOGILEV · PPG 0.75

ARSENAL D. · PPG 0.80

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.75), Away POOR (0.80)

Match Preview & Prediction

Dnepr Mogilev face Arsenal D. in Belarus - Premier League on Sunday, June 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Dnepr Mogilev a 36% chance, the draw 28% and Arsenal D. 36%, so Arsenal D. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Dnepr Mogilev and 1.2 for Arsenal D. (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 49% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Dnepr Mogilev are averaging 0.75 points per game versus 0.80 for Arsenal D.. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +12.2%.

Dnepr Mogilev vs Arsenal D. Prediction— Belarus - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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