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Belshina vs BATE Borisov Prediction— Belarus - Premier League

Regular Season - 11 ·Friday, June 12, 2026, 16:00

Belshina

PPG 1.80 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

BATE Borisov

PPG 0.60 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-019.7%0-114.0%0-25.0%0-31.2%0-4+0.2%1 1-018.0%1-112.8%1-24.6%1-31.1%1-4+0.2%2 2-08.2%2-15.9%2-22.1%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-02.5%3-11.8%3-20.6%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-10.5%4+-20.2%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.9% 29.4% 3.40 +35.7%

Draw 32.5% 33.3% 3.00 -2.5%

Away win 27.6% 48.8% 2.05 -26.1%

Over 2.5 37.8% 47.6% 2.10 -20.6%

Over 3.5 18.9% 27.6% 3.62 -18.9%

BTTS 47.8% 54.1% 1.85 -11.6%

Home O1.5 33.0% 29.9% 3.34 +10.2%

Away O1.5 24.3% 44.8% 2.23 -27.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 33%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -100.0%

Bet Hit 0%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 29%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob47.8%

H 40% / xG 0.9-0.7 / U2.5 38% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 19.7%

#2 1–0 18.0%

#3 1–1✓ 12.8%

#4 0–1 14.0%

#5 2–0 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Belshina0.9

BATE Borisov0.7

COMBINED 1.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 37.8% · O3.5 PROB 18.9%

Form & verdict PPG

BELSHINA · PPG 1.80

BATE BORISOV · PPG 0.60

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

66%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.80) vs P(Home)=39.9%

Win probability 1X2

Belshina (H) 39.9%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV +35.7%

Draw 32.5%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -2.5%

BATE Borisov (A) 27.6%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV -26.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Belshina face BATE Borisov in Belarus - Premier League on Friday, June 12, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Belshina a 40% chance, the draw 33% and BATE Borisov 28%, so Belshina are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Belshina and 0.7 for BATE Borisov (1.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 38% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Belshina are averaging 1.80 points per game versus 0.60 for BATE Borisov. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +35.7%. This match finished 1-1.

Belshina vs BATE Borisov Prediction— Belarus - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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