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Baranovichi vs FC Minsk Prediction— Belarus - Premier League

Regular Season - 11 ·Saturday, June 13, 2026, 12:00

Baranovichi

PPG 0.25 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

FC Minsk

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.9%0-19.3%0-28.9%0-35.6%0-4+4.1%1 1-05.4%1-110.4%1-29.9%1-36.3%1-4+4.6%2 2-03.0%2-15.8%2-25.5%2-33.5%2-4+2.6%3 3-01.1%3-12.1%3-22.0%3-31.3%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.8%4+-20.7%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 28.6% — — —

Draw 22.3% — — —

Away win 49.1% — — —

Over 2.5 63.9% — — —

Over 3.5 39.8% — — —

BTTS 61.6% — — —

Home O1.5 37.8% — — —

Away O1.5 49.4% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 33%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -100.0%

Bet Hit 0%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 57%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob61.6%

A 49% / xG 1.1-1.9 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.4%

#2 1–2 9.9%

#3 0–2 8.9%

#4 0–1 9.3%

#5 0–0 4.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Baranovichi1.1

FC Minsk1.9

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 39.8%

Form & verdict PPG

BARANOVICHI · PPG 0.25

FC MINSK · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: AVERAGE form (1.00) vs Home POOR (0.25)

Win probability 1X2

Baranovichi (H) 28.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 22.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

FC Minsk (A) 49.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Baranovichi face FC Minsk in Belarus - Premier League on Saturday, June 13, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Baranovichi a 29% chance, the draw 22% and FC Minsk 49%, so FC Minsk are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Baranovichi and 1.9 for FC Minsk (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Baranovichi are averaging 0.25 points per game versus 1.00 for FC Minsk. This match finished 2-1.

Baranovichi vs FC Minsk Prediction— Belarus - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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