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Isloch vs Naftan Prediction— Belarus - Premier League

Regular Season - 11 ·Friday, June 12, 2026, 14:00

Isloch

PPG 2.25 · HOME

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Naftan

PPG 0.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 70.8% vs bookmaker-implied 76.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.6%0-12.9%0-20.7%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-013.3%1-16.8%1-21.7%1-30.3%1-4+0.0%2 2-015.8%2-18.0%2-22.0%2-30.3%2-4+0.0%3 3-012.5%3-16.3%3-21.6%3-30.3%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-012.9%4+-16.6%4+-21.7%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 70.8% 76.9% 1.30 -8.0%

Draw 20.1% 23.1% 4.33 -7.8%

Away win 9.2% 11.1% 9.00 -10.3%

Over 2.5 59.6% 60.6% 1.65 -1.7%

Over 3.5 36.6% 36.2% 2.76 +1.0%

BTTS 47.6% 50.0% 2.00 -4.8%

Home O1.5 61.0% 68.5% 1.46 -10.9%

Away O1.5 18.0% 16.5% 6.05 +5.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 33%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -100.0%

Bet Hit 0%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 58%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob47.6%

H 71% / xG 2.4-0.5 / O2.5 60% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 15.8%

#2 3–0 12.5%

#3 1–0 13.3%

#4 2–1 8.0%

#5 1–1 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Isloch2.4

Naftan0.5

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.6% · O3.5 PROB 36.6%

Form & verdict PPG

ISLOCH · PPG 2.25

NAFTAN · PPG 0.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

40%

NEUTRAL

No PPG data

Win probability 1X2

Isloch (H) 70.8%

ODDS 1.30 · IMPLIED 76.9% EV -8.0%

Draw 20.1%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV -7.8%

Naftan (A) 9.2%

ODDS 9.00 · IMPLIED 11.1% EV -10.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Isloch face Naftan in Belarus - Premier League on Friday, June 12, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Isloch a 71% chance, the draw 20% and Naftan 9%, so Isloch are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Isloch and 0.5 for Naftan (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Isloch are averaging 2.25 points per game versus 0.00 for Naftan. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +5.3%. This match finished 3-1.

Isloch vs Naftan Prediction— Belarus - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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