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ML Vitebsk vs Vitebsk Prediction— Belarus - Premier League

Regular Season - 11 ·Saturday, June 13, 2026, 14:00

ML Vitebsk

PPG 1.50 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Vitebsk

PPG 0.40 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 65.8% vs bookmaker-implied 74.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.8%0-14.7%0-21.0%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-019.4%1-18.4%1-21.8%1-30.3%1-4+0.0%2 2-017.3%2-17.5%2-21.6%2-30.2%2-4+0.0%3 3-010.3%3-14.5%3-21.0%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-06.9%4+-13.0%4+-20.7%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 65.8% 74.1% 1.35 -11.2%

Draw 22.2% 23.8% 4.20 -4.1%

Away win 12.0% 11.8% 8.50 +1.2%

Over 2.5 48.9% 52.9% 1.89 -7.6%

Over 3.5 28.1% 32.8% 3.05 -8.6%

BTTS 45.9% 47.6% 2.10 -3.6%

Home O1.5 54.8% 63.7% 1.57 -14.0%

Away O1.5 1.5% 15.3% 6.55 -54.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 33%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -100.0%

Bet Hit 0%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 43%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)0.4 BTTS prob45.9%

H 66% / xG 1.8-0.4 / U2.5 49% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 19.4%

#2 2–0 17.3%

#3 0–0 10.8%

#4 3–0 10.3%

#5 1–1 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

ML Vitebsk1.8

Vitebsk0.4

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 48.9% · O3.5 PROB 28.1%

Form & verdict PPG

ML VITEBSK · PPG 1.50

VITEBSK · PPG 0.40

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in GOOD form (1.50), Away POOR (0.40) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

ML Vitebsk (H) 65.8%

ODDS 1.35 · IMPLIED 74.1% EV -11.2%

Draw 22.2%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -4.1%

Vitebsk (A) 12.0%

ODDS 8.50 · IMPLIED 11.8% EV +1.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

ML Vitebsk face Vitebsk in Belarus - Premier League on Saturday, June 13, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives ML Vitebsk a 66% chance, the draw 22% and Vitebsk 12%, so ML Vitebsk are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for ML Vitebsk and 0.4 for Vitebsk (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 49% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, ML Vitebsk are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 0.40 for Vitebsk. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +1.2%. This match finished 1-2.

ML Vitebsk vs Vitebsk Prediction— Belarus - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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