Today / Argentina - Primera Nacional / Deportivo Moron vs Colon Santa Fe

Deportivo Moron vs Colon Santa Fe Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Regular Season - 10 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 18:30

Deportivo Moron

PPG 2.50 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Colon Santa Fe

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 60.0% vs bookmaker-implied 46.5% — a clear edge.

+29.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.8%0-16.5%0-22.4%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-014.9%1-111.0%1-24.1%1-31.0%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.5%2-19.3%2-23.5%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-07.0%3-15.2%3-21.9%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-04.3%4+-13.2%4+-21.2%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 60.0% 46.5% 2.15 +29.0%

Draw 23.8% 38.2% 2.62 -37.6%

Away win 16.2% 25.0% 4.00 -35.2%

Over 2.5 43.8% — — —

Over 3.5 22.8% — — —

BTTS 42.7% 40.0% 2.50 +6.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 177 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 67%

ROI -1.5%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 45%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob42.7%

H 60% / xG 1.7-0.7 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 43%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 14.9%

#2 2–0✓ 12.5%

#3 1–1 11.0%

#4 2–1 9.3%

#5 0–0 8.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Deportivo Moron1.7

Colon Santa Fe0.7

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 43.8% · O3.5 PROB 22.8%

Form & verdict PPG

DEPORTIVO MORON · PPG 2.50

COLON SANTA FE · PPG 1.33

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

95%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.50) vs P(Home)=60.0%

Win probability 1X2

Deportivo Moron (H) 60.0%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV +29.0%

Draw 23.8%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV -37.6%

Colon Santa Fe (A) 16.2%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -35.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Deportivo Moron face Colon Santa Fe in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Deportivo Moron a 60% chance, the draw 24% and Colon Santa Fe 16%, so Deportivo Moron are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Deportivo Moron and 0.7 for Colon Santa Fe (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 43% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Deportivo Moron are averaging 2.50 points per game versus 1.33 for Colon Santa Fe. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +29.0%. This match finished 2-0.

Deportivo Moron vs Colon Santa Fe Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

More Argentina - Primera Nacional Predictions