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Al Shabab vs Al Nasar Prediction— Kuwait - Premier League

Relegation Play-Off - 1 ·Wednesday, June 17, 2026, 17:45

Al Shabab

PPG 1.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Al Nasar

PPG 0.78 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.7%0-115.6%0-28.9%0-33.4%0-4+1.2%1 1-011.6%1-113.2%1-27.5%1-32.9%1-4+1.0%2 2-04.9%2-15.6%2-23.2%2-31.2%2-4+0.4%3 3-01.4%3-11.6%3-20.9%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.4%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 29.0% 3.55 +1.8%

Draw 30.2% 3.35 +1.2%

Away win 40.8% 1.96 -20.0%

Over 2.5 43.6% 1.93 -15.8%

Over 3.5 22.9% 3.35 -14.0%

BTTS 48.5% 1.73 -16.1%

Win probability 1X2

Al Shabab (H) 29.0%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV +1.8%

Draw 30.2%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV +1.2%

Al Nasar (A) 40.8%

ODDS 1.96 · IMPLIED 51.0% EV -20.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 17 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 71%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 71%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 28%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob48.5%

A 41% / xG 0.8-1.1 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 13.7%

#2 1–1 13.2%

#3 0–1 15.6%

#4 1–0 11.6%

#5 0–2 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Al Shabab0.8

Al Nasar1.1

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 43.6% · O3.5 PROB 22.9%

Form & verdict PPG

AL SHABAB · PPG 1.00

AL NASAR · PPG 0.78

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.00), Away POOR (0.78)

Match Preview & Prediction

Al Shabab face Al Nasar in Kuwait - Premier League on Wednesday, June 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Al Shabab a 29% chance, the draw 30% and Al Nasar 41%, so Al Nasar are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Al Shabab and 1.1 for Al Nasar (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Al Shabab are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 0.78 for Al Nasar. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +1.8%.

Al Shabab vs Al Nasar Prediction— Kuwait - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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