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Utsikten vs Atvidaberg Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Södra

Södra - 13 ·Wednesday, June 17, 2026, 17:30

Utsikten

PPG 0.17 · HOME

UPCOMING

Atvidaberg

PPG 1.20 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 69.4% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.4%0-16.8%0-29.5%0-38.8%0-4+12.2%1 1-02.2%1-16.3%1-28.8%1-38.2%1-4+11.2%2 2-01.0%2-12.9%2-24.0%2-33.8%2-4+5.2%3 3-00.3%3-10.9%3-21.2%3-31.2%3-4+1.6%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.3%4+-20.4%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 12.6% 6.50 -10.9%

Draw 18.0% 4.40 -12.5%

Away win 69.4% 1.40 -2.8%

Over 2.5 65.9% 1.55 +2.1%

Over 3.5 42.7% 2.38 +1.6%

BTTS 59.3% 1.70 +0.8%

Win probability 1X2

Utsikten (H) 12.6%

ODDS 6.50 · IMPLIED 15.4% EV -10.9%

Draw 18.0%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV -12.5%

Atvidaberg (A) 69.4%

ODDS 1.40 · IMPLIED 71.4% EV -2.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 35 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 34%

ROI -4.4%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 71%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)2.8 BTTS prob59.3%

A 69% / xG 0.9-2.8 / O2.5 66% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–2 9.5%

#2 0–3 8.8%

#3 1–2 8.8%

#4 1–3 8.2%

#5 1–1 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Utsikten0.9

Atvidaberg2.8

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.9% · O3.5 PROB 42.7%

Form & verdict PPG

UTSIKTEN · PPG 0.17

ATVIDABERG · PPG 1.20

✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

90%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: AVERAGE form (1.20) vs Home POOR (0.17)

Match Preview & Prediction

Utsikten face Atvidaberg in Sweden - Ettan - Södra on Wednesday, June 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Utsikten a 13% chance, the draw 18% and Atvidaberg 69%, so Atvidaberg are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Utsikten and 2.8 for Atvidaberg (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-2. There is a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Utsikten are averaging 0.17 points per game versus 1.20 for Atvidaberg. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +18.3%.

Utsikten vs Atvidaberg Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Södra

Match Preview & Prediction

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