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Utsikten vs Rosengard Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Södra

Södra - 11 ·Monday, June 8, 2026, 17:30

Utsikten

PPG 0.20 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · AWAY O1.5

Rosengard

PPG 2.20 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away Over 1.5

Model probability 68.3% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7% — a real, if thin, edge.

+2.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.1%0-110.0%0-212.0%0-39.7%0-4+10.4%1 1-03.2%1-17.7%1-29.3%1-37.5%1-4+8.0%2 2-01.2%2-13.0%2-23.6%2-32.9%2-4+3.1%3 3-00.3%3-10.8%3-20.9%3-30.7%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.2%4+-20.2%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 13.4% 18.5% 5.40 -16.6%

Draw 20.6% 24.4% 4.10 -9.3%

Away win 66.0% 67.6% 1.48 -2.3%

Over 2.5 64.1% 61.7% 1.62 +3.8%

Over 3.5 39.2% 40.0% 2.50 -2.0%

BTTS 54.7% 59.9% 1.67 -8.6%

Home O1.5 33.7% 29.4% 3.40 +14.6%

Away O1.5 68.3% 66.7% 1.50 +2.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 50 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 34%

ROI 10.8%

Bet Hit 71%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 54%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)2.4 BTTS prob54.7%

A 66% / xG 0.8-2.4 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–2 12.0%

#2 0–3 9.7%

#3 1–2 9.3%

#4 1–1 7.7%

#5 0–1✓ 10.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Utsikten0.8

Rosengard2.4

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.1% · O3.5 PROB 39.2%

Form & verdict PPG

UTSIKTEN · PPG 0.20

ROSENGARD · PPG 2.20

✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

90%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.20) vs Home POOR (0.20)

Win probability 1X2

Utsikten (H) 13.4%

ODDS 5.40 · IMPLIED 18.5% EV -16.6%

Draw 20.6%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -9.3%

Rosengard (A) 66.0%

ODDS 1.48 · IMPLIED 67.6% EV -2.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Utsikten face Rosengard in Sweden - Ettan - Södra on Monday, June 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Utsikten a 13% chance, the draw 21% and Rosengard 66%, so Rosengard are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Utsikten and 2.4 for Rosengard (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-2. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Utsikten are averaging 0.20 points per game versus 2.20 for Rosengard. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +14.6%. This match finished 0-1.

Utsikten vs Rosengard Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Södra

Match Preview & Prediction

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