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Hassleholms IF vs Trelleborg Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Södra

Sweden - Ettan - Södra · Södra - 12 · Sunday, June 14, 2026, 11:00

Hassleholms IF

PPG 1.40 · HOME

UPCOMING

Trelleborg

PPG 2.60 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 64.2% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+9.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.3%0-17.0%0-27.6%0-35.4%0-4+4.8%1 1-04.2%1-18.9%1-29.6%1-36.9%1-4+6.1%2 2-02.7%2-15.7%2-26.1%2-34.4%2-4+3.9%3 3-01.1%3-12.4%3-22.6%3-31.8%3-4+1.6%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-11.0%4+-21.1%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 28.4% 3.50 -0.4%

Draw 22.2% 3.55 -12.7%

Away win 49.5% 1.85 -8.4%

Over 2.5 64.2% 1.70 +9.1%

Over 3.5 41.5% 2.75 +14.1%

BTTS 61.6% 1.60 -1.4%

Win probability 1X2

Hassleholms IF (H) 28.4%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -0.4%

Draw 22.2%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -12.7%

Trelleborg (A) 49.5%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -8.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 33 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 33%

ROI 2.9%

Bet Hit 62%

Hunt pick CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 52%HUNT CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)2.1 BTTS prob61.6%

A 50% / xG 1.3-2.1 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.9%

#2 1–2 9.6%

#3 0–2 7.6%

#4 1–3 6.9%

#5 2–2 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Hassleholms IF1.3

Trelleborg2.1

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.2% · O3.5 PROB 41.5%

Form & verdict PPG

HASSLEHOLMS IF · PPG 1.40

TRELLEBORG · PPG 2.60

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

66%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.60) vs Home AVERAGE (1.40)

Match Preview & Prediction

Hassleholms IF face Trelleborg in Sweden - Ettan - Södra on Sunday, June 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Hassleholms IF a 28% chance, the draw 22% and Trelleborg 50%, so Trelleborg are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Hassleholms IF and 2.1 for Trelleborg (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Hassleholms IF are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 2.60 for Trelleborg. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +17.7%.

Hassleholms IF vs Trelleborg Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Södra

Match Preview & Prediction

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