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Angelholm vs Utsikten Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Södra

Södra - 12 ·Saturday, June 13, 2026, 11:00

Angelholm

PPG 0.67 · HOME

4 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Utsikten

PPG 0.60 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 61.0% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.5%0-13.6%0-21.4%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-010.3%1-18.2%1-23.3%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-011.9%2-19.5%2-23.8%2-31.0%2-4+0.2%3 3-09.2%3-17.3%3-22.9%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-09.1%4+-17.3%4+-22.9%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 58.3% 67.6% 1.48 -13.7%

Draw 21.6% 24.4% 4.10 -6.9%

Away win 20.1% 17.9% 5.60 +7.5%

Over 2.5 60.9% 60.6% 1.65 +0.5%

Over 3.5 39.3% 38.5% 2.60 +2.2%

BTTS 52.4% 57.8% 1.73 -9.3%

Home O1.5 61.0% 66.7% 1.50 -8.5%

Away O1.5 24.3% 28.2% 3.55 -8.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 50 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 34%

ROI -2.3%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 51%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-2

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob52.4%

H 58% / xG 2.3-0.8 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 11.9%

#2 2–1 9.5%

#3 1–1 8.2%

#4 3–0 9.2%

#5 1–0 10.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Angelholm2.3

Utsikten0.8

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.9% · O3.5 PROB 39.3%

Form & verdict PPG

ANGELHOLM · PPG 0.67

UTSIKTEN · PPG 0.60

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.67), Away POOR (0.60)

Win probability 1X2

Angelholm (H) 58.3%

ODDS 1.48 · IMPLIED 67.6% EV -13.7%

Draw 21.6%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -6.9%

Utsikten (A) 20.1%

ODDS 5.60 · IMPLIED 17.9% EV +7.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Angelholm face Utsikten in Sweden - Ettan - Södra on Saturday, June 13, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Angelholm a 58% chance, the draw 22% and Utsikten 20%, so Angelholm are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Angelholm and 0.8 for Utsikten (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Angelholm are averaging 0.67 points per game versus 0.60 for Utsikten. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +8.0%. This match finished 4-2.

Angelholm vs Utsikten Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Södra

Match Preview & Prediction

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