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Trollhattan vs Kristianstad Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Södra

Södra - 12 ·Saturday, June 13, 2026, 14:00

Trollhattan

PPG 0.50 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Kristianstad

PPG 1.17 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 64.2% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.5%0-16.9%0-25.3%0-32.7%0-4+1.4%1 1-07.1%1-110.8%1-28.3%1-34.2%1-4+2.2%2 2-05.6%2-18.5%2-26.5%2-33.3%2-4+1.8%3 3-02.9%3-14.5%3-23.4%3-31.7%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-12.5%4+-21.9%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.0% 54.1% 1.85 -26.0%

Draw 24.3% 27.4% 3.65 -6.8%

Away win 35.7% 29.0% 3.45 +23.2%

Over 2.5 64.2% 64.5% 1.55 -0.5%

Over 3.5 39.8% 42.0% 2.38 -5.3%

BTTS 61.6% 67.6% 1.48 -8.8%

Home O1.5 49.3% 59.9% 1.67 -17.7%

Away O1.5 49.4% 42.0% 2.38 +17.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 50 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 34%

ROI -2.3%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 50%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob61.6%

H 40% / xG 1.6-1.5 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 10.8%

#2 2–1 8.5%

#3 1–2 8.3%

#4 2–2 6.5%

#5 0–0 4.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Trollhattan1.6

Kristianstad1.5

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.2% · O3.5 PROB 39.8%

Form & verdict PPG

TROLLHATTAN · PPG 0.50

KRISTIANSTAD · PPG 1.17

🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

95%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: AVERAGE form (1.17) vs Home POOR (0.50)

Win probability 1X2

Trollhattan (H) 40.0%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -26.0%

Draw 24.3%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -6.8%

Kristianstad (A) 35.7%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV +23.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Trollhattan face Kristianstad in Sweden - Ettan - Södra on Saturday, June 13, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Trollhattan a 40% chance, the draw 24% and Kristianstad 36%, so Trollhattan are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Trollhattan and 1.5 for Kristianstad (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Trollhattan are averaging 0.50 points per game versus 1.17 for Kristianstad. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +23.2%. This match finished 1-1.

Trollhattan vs Kristianstad Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Södra

Match Preview & Prediction

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