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Kristianstad vs Lund Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Södra

Södra - 11 ·Sunday, June 7, 2026, 11:00

Kristianstad

PPG 1.00 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Lund

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 62.0% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+5.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.0%0-19.6%0-29.1%0-35.8%0-4+4.2%1 1-05.5%1-110.4%1-29.9%1-36.3%1-4+4.6%2 2-03.0%2-15.7%2-25.4%2-33.4%2-4+2.5%3 3-01.1%3-12.0%3-21.9%3-31.2%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.7%4+-20.7%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 21.7% 36.4% 2.75 -24.2%

Draw 22.5% 29.0% 3.45 -13.4%

Away win 55.8% 44.4% 2.25 +25.6%

Over 2.5 62.0% 58.8% 1.70 +5.4%

Over 3.5 39.0% 36.4% 2.75 +7.2%

BTTS 60.6% 64.5% 1.55 -6.1%

Home O1.5 41.2% 44.4% 2.25 -7.3%

Away O1.5 44.6% 50.0% 2.00 -10.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 50 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 34%

ROI 10.8%

Bet Hit 71%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 59%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob60.6%

A 56% / xG 1.1-1.9 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 10.4%

#2 1–2 9.9%

#3 0–2 9.1%

#4 0–1 9.6%

#5 0–0 5.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Kristianstad1.1

Lund1.9

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.0% · O3.5 PROB 39.0%

Form & verdict PPG

KRISTIANSTAD · PPG 1.00

LUND · PPG 1.50

⚠ CAUTION - Home form weak, consider away

65%

DANGER

Home weakness: AVERAGE (1.00) vs Away GOOD (1.50)

Win probability 1X2

Kristianstad (H) 21.7%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV -24.2%

Draw 22.5%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -13.4%

Lund (A) 55.8%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV +25.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Kristianstad face Lund in Sweden - Ettan - Södra on Sunday, June 7, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Kristianstad a 22% chance, the draw 23% and Lund 56%, so Lund are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Kristianstad and 1.9 for Lund (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Kristianstad are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.50 for Lund. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +25.6%. This match finished 1-1.

Kristianstad vs Lund Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Södra

Match Preview & Prediction

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