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Rosengard vs Skovde AIK Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Södra

Södra - 12 ·Sunday, June 14, 2026, 14:00

Rosengard

PPG 0.80 · HOME

3 – 0

FULL TIME

Skovde AIK

PPG 1.20 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.2%0-110.5%0-24.5%0-31.3%0-4+0.3%1 1-015.2%1-113.1%1-25.6%1-31.6%1-4+0.4%2 2-09.4%2-18.1%2-23.5%2-31.0%2-4+0.3%3 3-03.9%3-13.4%3-21.4%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-11.4%4+-20.6%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.3% 69.0% 1.45 -28.5%

Draw 27.4% 24.4% 4.10 +7.4%

Away win 23.3% 17.2% 5.80 +21.1%

Over 2.5 47.1% 58.8% 1.70 -19.9%

Over 3.5 28.1% 36.4% 2.75 -13.6%

BTTS 47.8% 55.6% 1.80 -14.0%

Home O1.5 41.6% 65.4% 1.53 -36.4%

Away O1.5 25.0% 26.0% 3.85 -2.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 50 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 34%

ROI -2.3%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 31%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob47.8%

H 49% / xG 1.2-0.9 / U2.5 47% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.1%

#2 0–0 12.2%

#3 1–0 15.2%

#4 2–0 9.4%

#5 0–1 10.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Rosengard1.2

Skovde AIK0.9

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.1% · O3.5 PROB 28.1%

Form & verdict PPG

ROSENGARD · PPG 0.80

SKOVDE AIK · PPG 1.20

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ CAUTION - Home form weak, consider away

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: POOR (0.80) vs Away AVERAGE (1.20)

Win probability 1X2

Rosengard (H) 49.3%

ODDS 1.45 · IMPLIED 69.0% EV -28.5%

Draw 27.4%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV +7.4%

Skovde AIK (A) 23.3%

ODDS 5.80 · IMPLIED 17.2% EV +21.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Rosengard face Skovde AIK in Sweden - Ettan - Södra on Sunday, June 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Rosengard a 49% chance, the draw 27% and Skovde AIK 23%, so Rosengard are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Rosengard and 0.9 for Skovde AIK (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Rosengard are averaging 0.80 points per game versus 1.20 for Skovde AIK. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +21.1%. This match finished 3-0.

Rosengard vs Skovde AIK Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Södra

Match Preview & Prediction

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