Tvaaker vs Jonkopings Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Södra

Sweden - Ettan - Södra Södra - 12 Saturday, June 13, 2026 11:00

Tvaaker PPG 1.40

VS PENDING

Jonkopings PPG 0.40

Home· +43.8% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

66% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Tvaaker face Jonkopings in Sweden - Ettan - Södra on Saturday, June 13, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Tvaaker a 33% chance, the draw 30% and Jonkopings 37%, so Jonkopings are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Tvaaker and 1.1 for Jonkopings (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Tvaaker are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 0.40 for Jonkopings. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +43.8%.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 33.2%

Odds: 4.33 EV: +43.8%

Draw 29.5%

Odds: 3.45 EV: +1.1%

Away 37.3%

Odds: 1.75 EV: -34.7%

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 47.1% Odds: 1.85 -12.9%

Over 3.5 28.1% Odds: 3.10 -7.7%

BTTS 47.8% Odds: 1.73 -17.3%

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1

2nd 0-0

3rd 0-1

4th 1-0

5th 0-2

Expected Goals (xG)

Tvaaker

0.98

Jonkopings

1.09

Model SuggestionNo Bet  NO VALUE BET
Model lean: No market reaches the 50% probability threshold — no pick suggested.

League Track Record ↗

Based on 28 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5/Under 64%

BTTS/No 68%

Score Hit 36%

ROI -8.1%

Bet Hit 55% (11 bets)

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

66%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: AVERAGE form (1.40) vs P(Home)=33.2%