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Tvaaker vs Jonkopings Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Södra

Södra - 12 ·Saturday, June 13, 2026, 11:00

Tvaaker

PPG 1.40 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

Jonkopings

PPG 0.40 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.5%0-113.7%0-27.5%0-32.7%0-4+0.9%1 1-012.3%1-113.5%1-27.4%1-32.7%1-4+0.9%2 2-06.0%2-16.6%2-23.6%2-31.3%2-4+0.5%3 3-02.0%3-12.2%3-21.2%3-30.4%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-10.7%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 33.2% 23.1% 4.33 +43.8%

Draw 29.5% 29.0% 3.45 +1.1%

Away win 37.3% 57.1% 1.75 -34.7%

Over 2.5 47.1% 54.1% 1.85 -12.9%

Over 3.5 28.1% 32.3% 3.10 -7.7%

BTTS 47.8% 57.8% 1.73 -17.3%

Home O1.5 36.7% 30.3% 3.30 +21.1%

Away O1.5 32.8% 55.6% 1.80 -41.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 50 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 34%

ROI -2.3%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 34%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob47.8%

D 30% / xG 1.0-1.1 / U2.5 47% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.5%

#2 0–0 12.5%

#3 0–1 13.7%

#4 1–0 12.3%

#5 0–2 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Tvaaker1.0

Jonkopings1.1

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.1% · O3.5 PROB 28.1%

Form & verdict PPG

TVAAKER · PPG 1.40

JONKOPINGS · PPG 0.40

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

66%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: AVERAGE form (1.40) vs P(Home)=33.2%

Win probability 1X2

Tvaaker (H) 33.2%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV +43.8%

Draw 29.5%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV +1.1%

Jonkopings (A) 37.3%

ODDS 1.75 · IMPLIED 57.1% EV -34.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Tvaaker face Jonkopings in Sweden - Ettan - Södra on Saturday, June 13, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Tvaaker a 33% chance, the draw 30% and Jonkopings 37%, so Jonkopings are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Tvaaker and 1.1 for Jonkopings (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Tvaaker are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 0.40 for Jonkopings. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +43.8%. This match finished 2-1.

Tvaaker vs Jonkopings Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Södra

Match Preview & Prediction

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