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Atvidaberg vs Eskilsminne Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Södra

Södra - 12 ·Saturday, June 13, 2026, 14:00

Atvidaberg

PPG 2.17 · HOME

4 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Eskilsminne

PPG 1.20 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 65.8% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7% — a real, if thin, edge.

+6.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.7%0-13.9%0-22.7%0-31.3%0-4+0.6%1 1-06.0%1-18.5%1-26.0%1-32.8%1-4+1.4%2 2-06.5%2-19.2%2-26.5%2-33.1%2-4+1.5%3 3-04.8%3-16.7%3-24.8%3-32.2%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-04.3%4+-16.1%4+-24.3%4+-32.0%4+-4+1.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.9% 55.6% 1.80 -3.0%

Draw 22.4% 27.0% 3.70 -10.3%

Away win 23.7% 27.8% 3.60 -8.8%

Over 2.5 65.8% 61.7% 1.62 +6.6%

Over 3.5 42.8% 40.0% 2.50 +7.0%

BTTS 63.7% 64.5% 1.55 -1.3%

Home O1.5 61.0% 59.9% 1.67 +1.9%

Away O1.5 33.0% 39.2% 2.55 -15.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 50 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 34%

ROI -2.3%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 62%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-0

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob63.7%

H 54% / xG 2.2-1.4 / O2.5 66% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.5%

#2 2–1 9.2%

#3 3–1 6.7%

#4 2–2 6.5%

#5 2–0 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Atvidaberg2.2

Eskilsminne1.4

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.8% · O3.5 PROB 42.8%

Form & verdict PPG

ATVIDABERG · PPG 2.17

ESKILSMINNE · PPG 1.20

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.17) vs P(Home)=53.9%

Win probability 1X2

Atvidaberg (H) 53.9%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV -3.0%

Draw 22.4%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -10.3%

Eskilsminne (A) 23.7%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -8.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Atvidaberg face Eskilsminne in Sweden - Ettan - Södra on Saturday, June 13, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Atvidaberg a 54% chance, the draw 22% and Eskilsminne 24%, so Atvidaberg are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Atvidaberg and 1.4 for Eskilsminne (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Atvidaberg are averaging 2.17 points per game versus 1.20 for Eskilsminne. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +10.5%. This match finished 4-0.

Atvidaberg vs Eskilsminne Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Södra

Match Preview & Prediction

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