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Hammarby W vs AIK W Prediction— Sweden - Damallsvenskan

Regular Season - 10 ·Wednesday, June 17, 2026, 17:00

Hammarby W

PPG 2.25 · HOME

UPCOMING

AIK W

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.7 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 54.0% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.5%0-15.5%0-22.3%0-30.6%0-4+0.2%1 1-012.3%1-110.3%1-24.4%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.6%2-19.8%2-24.1%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-07.3%3-16.2%3-22.6%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-05.3%4+-14.5%4+-21.9%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 53.3% 1.33 -29.1%

Draw 23.1% 4.33 +0.0%

Away win 23.5% 7.50 +45.8%

Over 2.5 54.0% 1.57 -15.2%

Over 3.5 32.6% 2.38 -22.4%

BTTS 52.6% 1.80 -5.3%

Win probability 1X2

Hammarby W (H) 53.3%

ODDS 1.33 · IMPLIED 75.2% EV -29.1%

Draw 23.1%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV +0.0%

AIK W (A) 23.5%

ODDS 7.50 · IMPLIED 13.3% EV +45.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 14 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 36%

O2.5 79%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 37%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob52.6%

H 53% / xG 1.9-0.8 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.3%

#2 2–0 11.6%

#3 1–0 12.3%

#4 2–1 9.8%

#5 0–0 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Hammarby W1.9

AIK W0.8

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 54.0% · O3.5 PROB 32.6%

Form & verdict PPG

HAMMARBY W · PPG 2.25

AIK W · PPG 1.25

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.25) vs P(Home)=53.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Hammarby W face AIK W in Sweden - Damallsvenskan on Wednesday, June 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Hammarby W a 53% chance, the draw 23% and AIK W 24%, so Hammarby W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Hammarby W and 0.8 for AIK W (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Hammarby W are averaging 2.25 points per game versus 1.25 for AIK W. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +45.8%.

Hammarby W vs AIK W Prediction— Sweden - Damallsvenskan

Match Preview & Prediction

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