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Vaxjo W vs Uppsala W Prediction— Sweden - Damallsvenskan

Regular Season - 9 ·Saturday, June 13, 2026, 14:00

Vaxjo W

PPG 1.00 · HOME

4 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Uppsala W

PPG 0.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 64.2% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.3%0-15.4%0-23.4%0-31.4%0-4+0.6%1 1-08.2%1-110.2%1-26.4%1-32.6%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.8%2-19.7%2-26.0%2-32.5%2-4+1.0%3 3-04.9%3-16.1%3-23.8%3-31.6%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-03.6%4+-14.5%4+-22.8%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.8% 58.8% 1.70 -15.3%

Draw 22.5% 28.6% 3.50 -12.8%

Away win 27.6% 25.0% 4.00 +6.2%

Over 2.5 64.2% 63.7% 1.57 +0.8%

Over 3.5 39.8% 42.0% 2.38 -5.3%

BTTS 61.6% 65.4% 1.53 -5.8%

Home O1.5 59.1% 61.7% 1.62 -4.3%

Away O1.5 33.0% 36.4% 2.75 -9.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 30 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 77%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 47%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 47%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-0

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob61.6%

H 50% / xG 1.9-1.2 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.2%

#2 2–1 9.7%

#3 2–0 7.8%

#4 1–0 8.2%

#5 1–2 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Vaxjo W1.9

Uppsala W1.2

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.2% · O3.5 PROB 39.8%

Form & verdict PPG

VAXJO W · PPG 1.00

UPPSALA W · PPG 0.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

40%

NEUTRAL

No PPG data

Win probability 1X2

Vaxjo W (H) 49.8%

ODDS 1.70 · IMPLIED 58.8% EV -15.3%

Draw 22.5%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -12.8%

Uppsala W (A) 27.6%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV +6.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Vaxjo W face Uppsala W in Sweden - Damallsvenskan on Saturday, June 13, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Vaxjo W a 50% chance, the draw 23% and Uppsala W 28%, so Vaxjo W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Vaxjo W and 1.2 for Uppsala W (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Vaxjo W are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 0.00 for Uppsala W. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +6.2%. This match finished 4-0.

Vaxjo W vs Uppsala W Prediction— Sweden - Damallsvenskan

Match Preview & Prediction

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