Leagues / SWEDEN / Damallsvenskan
Damallsvenskan
▼ THIN-EDGE LEAGUE
SHARP MARKET — MODEL EDGE BELOW BREAK-EVEN HERE
// Model accuracy
How often the model's probability calls were right — graded on all 63 resolved matches, whether or not a bet was published.
52.4%
1X2
33/63
71.4%
O/U 2.5
45/63
49.2%
BTTS
31/63
39.7%
Exact score
25/63
// Published picks
Picks that met publication thresholds, settled at listed odds with a flat 1-unit stake. Separate from raw model accuracy on the left.
14
Settled
50.0%
Hit rate
7/14
1.80
Avg odds
-18.7%
ROI
-2.6u
Picks by market
OVER 2.5 · N=7 57.1% HIT · AVG 1.67 · -4.4% ROI
HOME O1.5 · N=5 60.0% HIT · AVG 1.74 · -6.2% ROI
HOME WIN · N=2 0.0% HIT · AVG 2.40 · -100.0% ROI
Picks by verdict tier
🎯 Strong bet
1
Bets
100%
Hit
+83.0%
ROI
✓ Solid
3
Bets
67%
Hit
-1.7%
ROI
✓ Fair / Caution
9
Bets
33%
Hit
-44.1%
ROI
⚠ Low confidence
1
Bets
100%
Hit
+57.0%
ROI
Match log
DateMatchPickEVFTResult
August 2026 // 14 PICKS · 7 HIT · 7 MISS
30 AUG Brommapojkarna W vs Piteå W Over 2.5 +6% 1–1 MISS30 AUG Norrköping W vs Djurgården W BTTS -18% 0–1 MISS29 AUG AIK W vs Kristianstad W Over 2.5 +7% 0–1 MISS29 AUG Rosengård W vs Häcken W Away -11% 0–1 HIT29 AUG Hammarby W vs Vittsjö W Home -19% 3–1 HIT29 AUG Växjö W vs Malmö FF W BTTS -5% 0–4 MISS28 AUG Uppsala W vs Eskilstuna United W Over 2.5 -19% 0–6 HIT23 AUG Häcken W vs AIK W HO1.5 4–1 HIT23 AUG Piteå W vs Uppsala W Home -21% 5–1 HIT23 AUG Vittsjö W vs Norrköping W Home +15% 1–1 MISS22 AUG Eskilstuna United W vs Växjö W BTTS -15% 0–1 MISS22 AUG Djurgården W vs Brommapojkarna W HO1.5 2–2 HIT22 AUG Kristianstad W vs Rosengård W HO1.5 1–1 MISS21 AUG Malmö FF W vs Hammarby W — NO PICK 1–1 —16 AUG Norrköping W vs Kristianstad W Over 2.5 +4% 0–5 HIT