Today / Sweden - Damallsvenskan / AIK W vs Djurgarden W

AIK W vs Djurgarden W Prediction— Sweden - Damallsvenskan

Regular Season - 9 ·Saturday, June 13, 2026, 11:00

AIK W

PPG 2.50 · HOME

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Djurgarden W

PPG 0.75 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 59.1% vs bookmaker-implied 54.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+8.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.1%0-14.7%0-21.6%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-014.1%1-19.4%1-23.1%1-30.7%1-4+0.1%2 2-013.9%2-19.3%2-23.1%2-30.7%2-4+0.1%3 3-09.2%3-16.1%3-22.0%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-07.1%4+-14.7%4+-21.6%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 57.6% 48.8% 2.05 +18.1%

Draw 22.4% 29.4% 3.40 -14.3%

Away win 20.0% 33.3% 3.00 -24.0%

Over 2.5 50.2% 60.6% 1.65 -17.2%

Over 3.5 29.5% 38.2% 2.62 -13.6%

BTTS 47.8% 63.7% 1.57 -24.9%

Home O1.5 59.1% 54.6% 1.83 +8.2%

Away O1.5 24.3% 38.2% 2.62 -21.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 30 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 77%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 47%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 34%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob47.8%

H 58% / xG 2.0-0.7 / O2.5 50% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 13.9%

#2 1–0 14.1%

#3 1–1 9.4%

#4 2–1 9.3%

#5 3–0✓ 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

AIK W2.0

Djurgarden W0.7

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.2% · O3.5 PROB 29.5%

Form & verdict PPG

AIK W · PPG 2.50

DJURGARDEN W · PPG 0.75

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

95%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.50) vs P(Home)=57.6%

Win probability 1X2

AIK W (H) 57.6%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV +18.1%

Draw 22.4%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -14.3%

Djurgarden W (A) 20.0%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -24.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

AIK W face Djurgarden W in Sweden - Damallsvenskan on Saturday, June 13, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives AIK W a 58% chance, the draw 22% and Djurgarden W 20%, so AIK W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for AIK W and 0.7 for Djurgarden W (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, AIK W are averaging 2.50 points per game versus 0.75 for Djurgarden W. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +20.9%. This match finished 3-0.

AIK W vs Djurgarden W Prediction— Sweden - Damallsvenskan

Match Preview & Prediction

More Sweden - Damallsvenskan Predictions