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Djurgarden W vs Malmo FF W Prediction— Sweden - Damallsvenskan

Regular Season - 10 ·Wednesday, June 17, 2026, 17:00

Djurgarden W

PPG 1.25 · HOME

UPCOMING

Malmo FF W

PPG 1.20 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 55.8% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.8%0-117.6%0-213.2%0-36.5%0-4+3.4%1 1-07.6%1-111.3%1-28.5%1-34.2%1-4+2.2%2 2-02.4%2-13.6%2-22.7%2-31.4%2-4+0.7%3 3-00.5%3-10.8%3-20.6%3-30.3%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.1%4+-20.1%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 18.1% 4.80 -7.9%

Draw 26.1% 3.40 -6.8%

Away win 55.8% 1.60 -10.7%

Over 2.5 47.6% 1.90 -9.6%

Over 3.5 27.5% 3.25 -6.4%

BTTS 48.5% 1.80 -12.7%

Win probability 1X2

Djurgarden W (H) 18.1%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV -7.9%

Draw 26.1%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -6.8%

Malmo FF W (A) 55.8%

ODDS 1.60 · IMPLIED 62.5% EV -10.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 14 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 36%

O2.5 79%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 35%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.6 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob48.5%

A 56% / xG 0.6-1.5 / U2.5 48% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 17.6%

#2 0–0 11.8%

#3 0–2 13.2%

#4 1–1 11.3%

#5 1–2 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Djurgarden W0.6

Malmo FF W1.5

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.6% · O3.5 PROB 27.5%

Form & verdict PPG

DJURGARDEN W · PPG 1.25

MALMO FF W · PPG 1.20

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.25), Away AVERAGE (1.20)

Match Preview & Prediction

Djurgarden W face Malmo FF W in Sweden - Damallsvenskan on Wednesday, June 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Djurgarden W a 18% chance, the draw 26% and Malmo FF W 56%, so Malmo FF W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.6 for Djurgarden W and 1.5 for Malmo FF W (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Djurgarden W are averaging 1.25 points per game versus 1.20 for Malmo FF W. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +29.6%.

Djurgarden W vs Malmo FF W Prediction— Sweden - Damallsvenskan

Match Preview & Prediction

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