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Hammarby W vs Hacken W Prediction— Sweden - Damallsvenskan

Regular Season - 9 ·Saturday, June 13, 2026, 13:00

Hammarby W

PPG 3.00 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME O1.5

Hacken W

PPG 2.25 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 54.8% vs bookmaker-implied 45.5% — a clear edge.

+20.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.2%0-16.9%0-23.3%0-31.1%0-4+0.3%1 1-012.0%1-111.6%1-25.5%1-31.8%1-4+0.5%2 2-010.1%2-19.6%2-24.6%2-31.5%2-4+0.4%3 3-05.6%3-15.4%3-22.6%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-03.4%4+-13.3%4+-21.6%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.9% 47.6% 2.10 +6.9%

Draw 25.1% 33.3% 3.00 -14.8%

Away win 24.1% 32.3% 3.10 -15.2%

Over 2.5 49.2% 51.3% 1.95 -4.1%

Over 3.5 29.1% 30.8% 3.25 -3.3%

BTTS 52.2% 59.9% 1.67 -12.8%

Home O1.5 54.8% 45.5% 2.20 +20.6%

Away O1.5 26.6% 40.0% 2.50 -20.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 30 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 77%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 47%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 29%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob52.2%

H 51% / xG 1.7-1.0 / O2.5 49% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.6%

#2 1–0 12.0%

#3 2–0 10.1%

#4 2–1 9.6%

#5 0–0 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Hammarby W1.7

Hacken W1.0

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.2% · O3.5 PROB 29.1%

Form & verdict PPG

HAMMARBY W · PPG 3.00

HACKEN W · PPG 2.25

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (3.00) > Away EXCELLENT (2.25)

Win probability 1X2

Hammarby W (H) 50.9%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV +6.9%

Draw 25.1%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -14.8%

Hacken W (A) 24.1%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -15.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Hammarby W face Hacken W in Sweden - Damallsvenskan on Saturday, June 13, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Hammarby W a 51% chance, the draw 25% and Hacken W 24%, so Hammarby W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Hammarby W and 1.0 for Hacken W (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 49% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Hammarby W are averaging 3.00 points per game versus 2.25 for Hacken W. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +20.6%. This match finished 0-1.

Hammarby W vs Hacken W Prediction— Sweden - Damallsvenskan

Match Preview & Prediction

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