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Pitea W vs Brommapojk. W Prediction— Sweden - Damallsvenskan

Regular Season - 9 ·Saturday, June 13, 2026, 10:30

Pitea W

PPG 1.50 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Brommapojk. W

PPG 0.75 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.9 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 60.6% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.3%0-15.6%0-22.9%0-31.0%0-4+0.3%1 1-010.1%1-110.5%1-25.5%1-31.9%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.5%2-19.9%2-25.2%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-06.0%3-16.2%3-23.3%3-31.1%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-04.3%4+-14.5%4+-22.4%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.4% 61.7% 1.62 -13.5%

Draw 23.2% 27.0% 3.70 -8.5%

Away win 23.5% 23.1% 4.33 +1.1%

Over 2.5 60.6% 64.5% 1.55 -6.1%

Over 3.5 37.1% 42.0% 2.38 -11.7%

BTTS 55.7% 64.5% 1.55 -13.7%

Home O1.5 59.1% 63.7% 1.57 -7.2%

Away O1.5 31.8% 33.3% 3.00 -4.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 30 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 77%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 47%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 50%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob55.7%

H 53% / xG 1.9-1.0 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.5%

#2 2–1 9.9%

#3 2–0 9.5%

#4 1–0 10.1%

#5 0–0 5.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Pitea W1.9

Brommapojk. W1.0

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.6% · O3.5 PROB 37.1%

Form & verdict PPG

PITEA W · PPG 1.50

BROMMAPOJK. W · PPG 0.75

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.50) > Away POOR (0.75)

Win probability 1X2

Pitea W (H) 53.4%

ODDS 1.62 · IMPLIED 61.7% EV -13.5%

Draw 23.2%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -8.5%

Brommapojk. W (A) 23.5%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV +1.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Pitea W face Brommapojk. W in Sweden - Damallsvenskan on Saturday, June 13, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Pitea W a 53% chance, the draw 23% and Brommapojk. W 24%, so Pitea W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Pitea W and 1.0 for Brommapojk. W (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Pitea W are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 0.75 for Brommapojk. W. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +1.1%. This match finished 1-2.

Pitea W vs Brommapojk. W Prediction— Sweden - Damallsvenskan

Match Preview & Prediction

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