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Maribor vs Primorje Prediction— Slovenia - 1. SNL

Regular Season - 31 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 18:15

Maribor

PPG 1.86 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Primorje

PPG 0.14 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 84.4% vs bookmaker-implied 75.8% — a clear edge.

+11.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.9%0-11.4%0-20.5%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-06.2%1-14.6%1-21.7%1-30.4%1-4+0.1%2 2-09.9%2-17.4%2-22.8%2-30.7%2-4+0.2%3 3-010.5%3-17.9%3-23.0%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-018.8%4+-114.1%4+-25.3%4+-31.3%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 84.4% 75.8% 1.32 +11.4%

Draw 10.2% 20.6% 4.85 -50.5%

Away win 5.4% 12.3% 8.10 -56.3%

Over 2.5 75.4% 67.6% 1.48 +11.6%

Over 3.5 55.7% 45.5% 2.20 +22.5%

BTTS 50.6% 59.9% 1.67 -15.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 74%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 37%

ROI 30.6%

Bet Hit 82%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 75%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)3.2 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob50.6%

H 84% / xG 3.2-0.7 / O2.5 75% / BTTS 51%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–0 10.5%

#2 2–0✓ 9.9%

#3 4–0 8.4%

#4 3–1 7.9%

#5 2–1 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Maribor3.2

Primorje0.7

COMBINED 4.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 75.4% · O3.5 PROB 55.7%

Form & verdict PPG

MARIBOR · PPG 1.86

PRIMORJE · PPG 0.14

✓ SOLID - Strong home form

95%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in GOOD form (1.86), Away POOR (0.14) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Maribor (H) 84.4%

ODDS 1.32 · IMPLIED 75.8% EV +11.4%

Draw 10.2%

ODDS 4.85 · IMPLIED 20.6% EV -50.5%

Primorje (A) 5.4%

ODDS 8.10 · IMPLIED 12.3% EV -56.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Maribor face Primorje in Slovenia - 1. SNL on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Maribor a 84% chance, the draw 10% and Primorje 5%, so Maribor are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.2 for Maribor and 0.7 for Primorje (4.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-0. There is a 75% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Maribor are averaging 1.86 points per game versus 0.14 for Primorje. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +22.5%. This match finished 2-0.

Maribor vs Primorje Prediction— Slovenia - 1. SNL

Match Preview & Prediction

More Slovenia - 1. SNL Predictions