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Aluminij vs Koper Prediction— Slovenia - 1. SNL

Matchday 7 ·Friday, August 28, 2026, 18:15

Aluminij

PPG 1.41 · HOME

LAST 5

LDWWL

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Koper

PPG 1.62 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLDWW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.9% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.8%0-19.2%0-25.5%0-32.2%0-4+0.8%1 1-010.6%1-112.6%1-27.5%1-33.0%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.3%2-18.6%2-25.1%2-32.0%2-4+0.8%3 3-03.3%3-13.9%3-22.3%3-30.9%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-11.8%4+-21.1%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.4% 31.3% 3.20 +42.1%

Draw 26.5% 28.6% 3.50 -4.3%

Away win 29.1% 49.5% 2.02 -24.7%

Over 2.5 50.5% 58.8% 1.70 -14.1%

Over 3.5 30.2% 36.4% 2.75 -17.0%

BTTS 53.9% 63.7% 1.57 -15.4%

Home O1.5 38.0% 39.2% 2.55 -3.1%

Away O1.5 34.1% 52.6% 1.90 -35.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 41 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 66%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 46%

Score Hit 46%

ROI 60.7%

Bet Hit 91%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 25%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob53.9%

H 44% / xG 1.4-1.2 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.6%

#2 1–0 10.6%

#3 2–1 8.6%

#4 0–0 7.8%

#5 2–0 7.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Aluminij1.4

Koper1.2

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 30.2%

Form & verdict PPG

ALUMINIJ · PPG 1.41

KOPER · PPG 1.62

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.18 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Aluminij (H) 44.4%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV +42.1%

Draw 26.5%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -4.3%

Koper (A) 29.1%

ODDS 2.02 · IMPLIED 49.5% EV -24.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Aluminij face Koper in Slovenia - 1. SNL on Friday, August 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Aluminij a 44% chance, the draw 27% and Koper 29%, so Aluminij are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Aluminij and 1.2 for Koper (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Aluminij are averaging 1.41 points per game versus 1.62 for Koper. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +9.0%. This match finished 0-1.

Aluminij vs Koper Prediction— Slovenia - 1. SNL

Match Preview & Prediction

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