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Bravo vs Mura Prediction— Slovenia - 1. SNL

Matchday 7 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 18:15

Bravo

PPG 1.39 · HOME

LAST 5

WDDLW

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Mura

PPG 1.02 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLWLL

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 59.9% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.3%0-15.2%0-23.1%0-31.3%0-4+0.5%1 1-08.3%1-110.0%1-26.1%1-32.5%1-4+1.0%2 2-08.0%2-19.8%2-25.9%2-32.4%2-4+0.9%3 3-05.2%3-16.3%3-23.8%3-31.6%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-03.9%4+-14.8%4+-22.9%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.6% 46.7% 2.14 +8.3%

Draw 23.1% 29.4% 3.40 -12.9%

Away win 26.3% 32.8% 3.05 -11.9%

Over 2.5 59.7% 56.5% 1.77 +5.7%

Over 3.5 36.7% 34.5% 2.90 +6.4%

BTTS 59.9% 62.5% 1.60 -4.2%

Home O1.5 56.3% 50.0% 2.00 +12.6%

Away O1.5 36.6% 39.2% 2.55 -6.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 41 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 66%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 46%

Score Hit 46%

ROI 60.7%

Bet Hit 91%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 42%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob59.9%

H 51% / xG 1.9-1.2 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.0%

#2 2–1 9.8%

#3 2–0✓ 8.0%

#4 1–2 6.1%

#5 1–0 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bravo1.9

Mura1.2

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.7%

Form & verdict PPG

BRAVO · PPG 1.39

MURA · PPG 1.02

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.73 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Bravo (H) 50.6%

ODDS 2.14 · IMPLIED 46.7% EV +8.3%

Draw 23.1%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -12.9%

Mura (A) 26.3%

ODDS 3.05 · IMPLIED 32.8% EV -11.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Bravo face Mura in Slovenia - 1. SNL on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bravo a 51% chance, the draw 23% and Mura 26%, so Bravo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Bravo and 1.2 for Mura (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bravo are averaging 1.39 points per game versus 1.02 for Mura. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +17.3%. This match finished 2-0.

Bravo vs Mura Prediction— Slovenia - 1. SNL

Match Preview & Prediction

More Slovenia - 1. SNL Predictions