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Radomlje vs Olimpija Ljubljana Prediction— Slovenia - 1. SNL

Matchday 7 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 15:30

Radomlje

PPG 0.95 · HOME

LAST 5

DLWLD

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Olimpija Ljubljana

PPG 1.02 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLDWD

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.9% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.5%0-19.7%0-25.6%0-32.1%0-4+0.8%1 1-011.2%1-112.8%1-27.4%1-32.8%1-4+1.0%2 2-07.4%2-18.5%2-24.9%2-31.9%2-4+0.7%3 3-03.2%3-13.7%3-22.1%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-11.6%4+-20.9%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.5% 26.7% 3.75 +48.1%

Draw 26.9% 28.6% 3.50 -3.5%

Away win 33.6% 53.8% 1.86 -37.5%

Over 2.5 50.5% 55.6% 1.80 -9.1%

Over 3.5 28.7% 33.3% 3.00 -8.3%

BTTS 52.9% 59.9% 1.67 -11.7%

Home O1.5 37.2% 33.3% 3.00 +11.6%

Away O1.5 33.0% 54.1% 1.85 -39.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 41 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 66%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 46%

Score Hit 46%

ROI 60.7%

Bet Hit 91%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 19%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob52.9%

H 40% / xG 1.3-1.1 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.8%

#2 1–0 11.2%

#3 0–0✓ 8.5%

#4 2–1 8.5%

#5 0–1 9.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Radomlje1.3

Olimpija Ljubljana1.1

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

RADOMLJE · PPG 0.95

OLIMPIJA LJUBLJANA · PPG 1.02

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.17, combined xG 2.47 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Radomlje (H) 39.5%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV +48.1%

Draw 26.9%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -3.5%

Olimpija Ljubljana (A) 33.6%

ODDS 1.86 · IMPLIED 53.8% EV -37.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Radomlje face Olimpija Ljubljana in Slovenia - 1. SNL on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Radomlje a 40% chance, the draw 27% and Olimpija Ljubljana 34%, so Radomlje are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Radomlje and 1.1 for Olimpija Ljubljana (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Radomlje are averaging 0.95 points per game versus 1.02 for Olimpija Ljubljana. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +23.5%. This match finished 0-0.

Radomlje vs Olimpija Ljubljana Prediction— Slovenia - 1. SNL

Match Preview & Prediction

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