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Aluminij vs Celje Prediction— Slovenia - 1. SNL

Matchday 2 ·Wednesday, September 2, 2026, 18:00

Aluminij

PPG 1.25 · HOME

LAST 5

LDWWL

UPCOMING

Celje

PPG 1.76 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDWWL

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 61.5% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.8%0-17.1%0-25.2%0-32.6%0-4+1.3%1 1-07.5%1-111.1%1-28.2%1-34.0%1-4+2.0%2 2-05.9%2-18.6%2-26.4%2-33.1%2-4+1.6%3 3-03.0%3-14.5%3-23.3%3-31.6%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-12.5%4+-21.8%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.4% 19.2% 5.20 +120.5%

Draw 23.2% 24.4% 4.10 -2.9%

Away win 34.4% 65.4% 1.53 -47.4%

Over 2.5 60.6% 65.4% 1.53 -7.3%

Over 3.5 37.5% 42.6% 2.35 -11.9%

BTTS 61.5% 63.7% 1.57 -3.4%

Home O1.5 46.1% 32.3% 3.10 +42.9%

Away O1.5 42.2% 66.7% 1.50 -36.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 41 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 66%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 46%

Score Hit 46%

ROI 60.7%

Bet Hit 91%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 49%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob61.5%

H 42% / xG 1.6-1.5 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.1%

#2 2–1 8.6%

#3 1–2 8.2%

#4 2–0 5.9%

#5 1–0 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Aluminij1.6

Celje1.5

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.6% · O3.5 PROB 37.5%

Form & verdict PPG

ALUMINIJ · PPG 1.25

CELJE · PPG 1.76

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.09 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Aluminij (H) 42.4%

ODDS 5.20 · IMPLIED 19.2% EV +120.5%

Draw 23.2%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -2.9%

Celje (A) 34.4%

ODDS 1.53 · IMPLIED 65.4% EV -47.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Aluminij face Celje in Slovenia - 1. SNL on Wednesday, September 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Aluminij a 42% chance, the draw 23% and Celje 34%, so Aluminij are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Aluminij and 1.5 for Celje (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Aluminij are averaging 1.25 points per game versus 1.76 for Celje. The best value bet our model finds is RES_H/O15, with an expected value of +53.4%.

Aluminij vs Celje Prediction— Slovenia - 1. SNL

Match Preview & Prediction

More Slovenia - 1. SNL Predictions