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Olimpija Ljubljana vs Brinje-Grosuplje Prediction— Slovenia - 1. SNL

Matchday 8 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 18:15

Olimpija Ljubljana

PPG 1.71 · HOME

LAST 5

WLDWD

UPCOMING

Brinje-Grosuplje

PPG 1.28 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDLLW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.9% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.1%0-110.6%0-25.6%0-32.0%0-4+0.6%1 1-012.6%1-113.2%1-26.9%1-32.4%1-4+0.8%2 2-07.8%2-18.2%2-24.3%2-31.5%2-4+0.5%3 3-03.2%3-13.4%3-21.8%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-11.4%4+-20.7%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.7% 58.8% 1.70 -27.4%

Draw 27.4% 27.8% 3.60 -0.8%

Away win 29.9% 22.5% 4.45 +19.8%

Over 2.5 50.4% 55.6% 1.80 -9.3%

Over 3.5 28.7% 33.9% 2.95 -9.2%

BTTS 52.9% 58.8% 1.70 -10.1%

Home O1.5 34.9% 56.5% 1.77 -38.2%

Away O1.5 32.5% 30.3% 3.30 +7.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 64%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 45%

Score Hit 45%

ROI 60.7%

Bet Hit 91%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 23%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob52.9%

H 43% / xG 1.2-1.1 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.2%

#2 1–0 12.6%

#3 0–0 10.1%

#4 2–1 8.2%

#5 0–1 10.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Olimpija Ljubljana1.2

Brinje-Grosuplje1.1

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.4% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

OLIMPIJA LJUBLJANA · PPG 1.71

BRINJE-GROSUPLJE · PPG 1.28

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.19, combined xG 2.29 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Olimpija Ljubljana (H) 42.7%

ODDS 1.70 · IMPLIED 58.8% EV -27.4%

Draw 27.4%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -0.8%

Brinje-Grosuplje (A) 29.9%

ODDS 4.45 · IMPLIED 22.5% EV +19.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Olimpija Ljubljana face Brinje-Grosuplje in Slovenia - 1. SNL on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Olimpija Ljubljana a 43% chance, the draw 27% and Brinje-Grosuplje 30%, so Olimpija Ljubljana are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Olimpija Ljubljana and 1.1 for Brinje-Grosuplje (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Olimpija Ljubljana are averaging 1.71 points per game versus 1.28 for Brinje-Grosuplje. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +25.7%.

Olimpija Ljubljana vs Brinje-Grosuplje Prediction— Slovenia - 1. SNL

Match Preview & Prediction

More Slovenia - 1. SNL Predictions