Today / Slovenia - 1. SNL / Maribor vs Bravo

Maribor vs Bravo Prediction— Slovenia - 1. SNL

Matchday 6 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 18:15

Maribor

PPG 2.16 · HOME

LAST 5

DWDWW

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Bravo

PPG 1.92 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDDLW

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 52.3% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.0%0-16.9%0-23.0%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-013.4%1-111.5%1-24.9%1-31.4%1-4+0.4%2 2-011.1%2-19.5%2-24.1%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-06.1%3-15.3%3-22.3%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-03.7%4+-13.2%4+-21.4%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.3% 61.7% 1.62 -15.3%

Draw 24.4% 26.3% 3.80 -4.4%

Away win 23.4% 23.1% 4.33 +0.8%

Over 2.5 50.2% 62.5% 1.60 -19.7%

Over 3.5 28.3% 40.0% 2.50 -17.5%

BTTS 51.0% 61.7% 1.62 -17.4%

Home O1.5 48.1% 63.7% 1.57 -24.5%

Away O1.5 22.8% 30.8% 3.25 -15.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 41 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 66%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 46%

Score Hit 46%

ROI 60.7%

Bet Hit 91%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 27%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob51.0%

H 52% / xG 1.7-0.9 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 51%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.5%

#2 1–0 13.4%

#3 2–0 11.1%

#4 2–1 9.5%

#5 0–0 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Maribor1.7

Bravo0.9

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.2% · O3.5 PROB 28.3%

Form & verdict PPG

MARIBOR · PPG 2.16

BRAVO · PPG 1.92

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.80 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Maribor (H) 52.3%

ODDS 1.62 · IMPLIED 61.7% EV -15.3%

Draw 24.4%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -4.4%

Bravo (A) 23.4%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV +0.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Maribor face Bravo in Slovenia - 1. SNL on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Maribor a 52% chance, the draw 24% and Bravo 23%, so Maribor are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Maribor and 0.9 for Bravo (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Maribor are averaging 2.16 points per game versus 1.92 for Bravo. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +3.0%. This match finished 3-1.

Maribor vs Bravo Prediction— Slovenia - 1. SNL

Match Preview & Prediction

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