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Maribor vs Mura Prediction— Slovenia - 1. SNL

Matchday 8 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 15:30

Maribor

PPG 2.27 · HOME

LAST 5

DWDWW

UPCOMING

Mura

PPG 0.91 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLWLL

// Model verdict

Home 71% chance

Model probability 68.7% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.0%0-12.5%0-21.0%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-08.0%1-16.7%1-22.8%1-30.8%1-4+0.2%2 2-010.7%2-18.9%2-23.7%2-31.0%2-4+0.3%3 3-09.5%3-18.0%3-23.3%3-30.9%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-012.2%4+-110.2%4+-24.2%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 68.7% 71.4% 1.40 -3.8%

Draw 16.2% 25.0% 4.00 -21.1%

Away win 15.2% 15.4% 6.50 -0.7%

Over 2.5 65.0% 59.9% 1.67 +8.6%

Over 3.5 44.8% 38.2% 2.62 +17.4%

BTTS 54.6% 57.1% 1.75 -4.5%

Home O1.5 66.3% 66.7% 1.50 -0.5%

Away O1.5 23.8% 23.1% 4.33 +1.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 43 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 65%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 44%

ROI 60.8%

Bet Hit 92%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 62%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.7 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob54.6%

H 69% / xG 2.7-0.8 / O2.5 65% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 10.7%

#2 3–0 9.5%

#3 2–1 8.9%

#4 1–1 6.7%

#5 3–1 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Maribor2.7

Mura0.8

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.0% · O3.5 PROB 44.8%

Form & verdict PPG

MARIBOR · PPG 2.27

MURA · PPG 0.91

✓ SOLID - Strong home form

Chance this pick lands

71%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.84 for Home, form 2.27 vs 0.91 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Maribor (H) 68.7%

ODDS 1.40 · IMPLIED 71.4% EV -3.8%

Draw 16.2%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -21.1%

Mura (A) 15.2%

ODDS 6.50 · IMPLIED 15.4% EV -0.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Maribor face Mura in Slovenia - 1. SNL on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Maribor a 69% chance, the draw 16% and Mura 15%, so Maribor are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.7 for Maribor and 0.8 for Mura (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Maribor are averaging 2.27 points per game versus 0.91 for Mura. The best value bet our model finds is TT_HomeO25, with an expected value of +25.3%.

Maribor vs Mura Prediction— Slovenia - 1. SNL

Match Preview & Prediction

More Slovenia - 1. SNL Predictions