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Nafta vs Radomlje Prediction— Slovenia - 1. SNL

Matchday 8 ·Friday, September 4, 2026, 18:15

Nafta

PPG 1.17 · HOME

LAST 5

WDLLL

UPCOMING

Radomlje

PPG 1.47 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLWLD

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.7% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7% — a real, if thin, edge.

+3.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.6%0-15.4%0-24.1%0-32.0%0-4+1.1%1 1-06.5%1-19.8%1-27.4%1-33.7%1-4+1.9%2 2-06.0%2-19.0%2-26.8%2-33.4%2-4+1.8%3 3-03.6%3-15.5%3-24.1%3-32.1%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-02.5%4+-13.8%4+-22.8%4+-31.4%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.9% 45.5% 2.20 -5.6%

Draw 22.8% 28.2% 3.55 -11.4%

Away win 34.3% 35.5% 2.82 -3.3%

Over 2.5 63.7% 61.7% 1.62 +3.2%

Over 3.5 40.4% 39.2% 2.55 +3.0%

BTTS 62.5% 66.7% 1.50 -6.3%

Home O1.5 52.5% 52.4% 1.91 +0.3%

Away O1.5 44.4% 45.5% 2.20 -2.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 64%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 45%

Score Hit 45%

ROI 60.7%

Bet Hit 91%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 46%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob62.5%

H 43% / xG 1.8-1.5 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.8%

#2 2–1 9.0%

#3 1–2 7.4%

#4 2–2 6.8%

#5 2–0 6.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Nafta1.8

Radomlje1.5

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.7% · O3.5 PROB 40.4%

Form & verdict PPG

NAFTA · PPG 1.17

RADOMLJE · PPG 1.47

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.32 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Nafta (H) 42.9%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV -5.6%

Draw 22.8%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -11.4%

Radomlje (A) 34.3%

ODDS 2.82 · IMPLIED 35.5% EV -3.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Nafta face Radomlje in Slovenia - 1. SNL on Friday, September 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Nafta a 43% chance, the draw 23% and Radomlje 34%, so Nafta are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Nafta and 1.5 for Radomlje (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Nafta are averaging 1.17 points per game versus 1.47 for Radomlje. The best value bet our model finds is TT_HomeO25, with an expected value of +3.8%.

Nafta vs Radomlje Prediction— Slovenia - 1. SNL

Match Preview & Prediction

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