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Aluminij vs Bravo Prediction— Slovenia - 1. SNL

Matchday 8 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 15:30

Aluminij

PPG 1.13 · HOME

LAST 5

DWWLL

UPCOMING

Bravo

PPG 1.71 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDDLW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.5%0-110.0%0-26.7%0-33.0%0-4+1.3%1 1-09.4%1-112.6%1-28.4%1-33.7%1-4+1.7%2 2-05.9%2-17.9%2-25.3%2-32.3%2-4+1.1%3 3-02.5%3-13.3%3-22.2%3-31.0%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-11.4%4+-20.9%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.5% 42.7% 2.34 -14.6%

Draw 26.6% 29.0% 3.45 -4.9%

Away win 37.0% 37.0% 2.70 -0.1%

Over 2.5 52.9% 57.8% 1.73 -8.5%

Over 3.5 31.6% 36.4% 2.75 -13.1%

BTTS 54.6% 64.5% 1.55 -15.4%

Home O1.5 36.8% 47.6% 2.10 -22.7%

Away O1.5 42.2% 44.4% 2.25 -5.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 64%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 45%

Score Hit 45%

ROI 60.7%

Bet Hit 91%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 25%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob54.6%

A 37% / xG 1.3-1.3 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.6%

#2 2–1 7.9%

#3 1–2 8.4%

#4 1–0 9.4%

#5 0–0 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Aluminij1.3

Bravo1.3

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.9% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

ALUMINIJ · PPG 1.13

BRAVO · PPG 1.71

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.08 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Aluminij (H) 36.5%

ODDS 2.34 · IMPLIED 42.7% EV -14.6%

Draw 26.6%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -4.9%

Bravo (A) 37.0%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV -0.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Aluminij face Bravo in Slovenia - 1. SNL on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Aluminij a 37% chance, the draw 27% and Bravo 37%, so Bravo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Aluminij and 1.3 for Bravo (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Aluminij are averaging 1.13 points per game versus 1.71 for Bravo.

Aluminij vs Bravo Prediction— Slovenia - 1. SNL

Match Preview & Prediction

More Slovenia - 1. SNL Predictions