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Celje vs Koper Prediction— Slovenia - 1. SNL

Matchday 8 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 18:15

Celje

PPG 1.88 · HOME

LAST 5

DWWLW

UPCOMING

Koper

PPG 1.76 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLDWW

// Model verdict

BTTS 65% chance

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.0%0-17.5%0-24.1%0-31.5%0-4+0.5%1 1-011.0%1-111.9%1-26.5%1-32.3%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.7%2-19.4%2-25.1%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-04.6%3-15.0%3-22.7%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-02.6%4+-12.8%4+-21.5%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.1% 51.3% 1.95 -10.1%

Draw 24.8% 29.4% 3.40 -9.4%

Away win 29.1% 30.8% 3.25 -3.3%

Over 2.5 53.5% 63.7% 1.57 -16.0%

Over 3.5 31.6% 42.0% 2.38 -24.8%

BTTS 54.6% 69.4% 1.44 -21.4%

Home O1.5 47.3% 54.6% 1.83 -13.4%

Away O1.5 32.9% 44.4% 2.25 -26.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 43 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 65%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 44%

ROI 60.8%

Bet Hit 92%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 32%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob54.6%

H 46% / xG 1.6-1.1 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.9%

#2 2–1 9.4%

#3 1–0 11.0%

#4 2–0 8.7%

#5 1–2 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Celje1.6

Koper1.1

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

CELJE · PPG 1.88

KOPER · PPG 1.76

⚠ NO VALUE FOUND - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

65%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.50 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Celje (H) 46.1%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV -10.1%

Draw 24.8%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -9.4%

Koper (A) 29.1%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -3.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Celje face Koper in Slovenia - 1. SNL on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Celje a 46% chance, the draw 25% and Koper 29%, so Celje are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Celje and 1.1 for Koper (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Celje are averaging 1.88 points per game versus 1.76 for Koper.

Celje vs Koper Prediction— Slovenia - 1. SNL

Match Preview & Prediction

More Slovenia - 1. SNL Predictions