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Riga FC vs RFS Prediction— Latvia - Virsliga

Regular Season - 18 ·Wednesday, June 17, 2026, 16:00

Riga FC

PPG 2.50 · HOME

UPCOMING

RFS

PPG 3.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 64.1% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6% — a clear edge.

+15.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.4%0-15.6%0-24.6%0-32.5%0-4+1.5%1 1-06.0%1-19.7%1-27.9%1-34.3%1-4+2.5%2 2-05.2%2-18.5%2-26.9%2-33.8%2-4+2.2%3 3-03.0%3-14.9%3-24.0%3-32.2%3-4+1.3%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-13.2%4+-22.6%4+-31.4%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 44.0% 2.40 +5.6%

Draw 22.4% 3.40 -14.3%

Away win 33.6% 2.55 -14.3%

Over 2.5 64.1% 1.80 +15.4%

Over 3.5 41.0% 3.00 +23.0%

BTTS 63.4% 1.62 +2.7%

Win probability 1X2

Riga FC (H) 44.0%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV +5.6%

Draw 22.4%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -14.3%

RFS (A) 33.6%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV -14.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 50 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 64%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 58%

ROI -24.0%

Bet Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 49%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob63.4%

H 44% / xG 1.7-1.6 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.7%

#2 2–1 8.5%

#3 1–2 7.9%

#4 2–2 6.9%

#5 2–0 5.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Riga FC1.7

RFS1.6

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.1% · O3.5 PROB 41.0%

Form & verdict PPG

RIGA FC · PPG 2.50

RFS · PPG 3.00

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

65%

DANGER

Home weakness: EXCELLENT (2.50) vs Away EXCELLENT (3.00)

Match Preview & Prediction

Riga FC face RFS in Latvia - Virsliga on Wednesday, June 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Riga FC a 44% chance, the draw 22% and RFS 34%, so Riga FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Riga FC and 1.6 for RFS (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Riga FC are averaging 2.50 points per game versus 3.00 for RFS. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +23.0%.

Riga FC vs RFS Prediction— Latvia - Virsliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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