Liepaja vs Super Nova Prediction— Latvia - Virsliga

Latvia - Virsliga Regular Season - 17 Daugavas stadions Friday, June 12, 2026 16:00

Liepaja PPG 1.75

VS PENDING

Super Nova PPG 1.67

Away· +9.6% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Liepaja face Super Nova in Latvia - Virsliga on Friday, June 12, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Liepaja a 46% chance, the draw 27% and Super Nova 27%, so Liepaja are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Liepaja and 1.0 for Super Nova (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 49% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Liepaja are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 1.67 for Super Nova. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +9.6%.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 46.1%

Odds: 1.67 EV: -23.0%

Draw 27.1%

Odds: 3.65 EV: -0.7%

Away 26.8%

Odds: 4.33 EV: +9.6%

Model lean: BTTS Not tracked as an official bet.

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 48.9% Odds: 1.70 -16.9%

Over 3.5 28.1% Odds: 2.70 -14.5%

BTTS 52.8% Odds: 1.65 -12.9%

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1

2nd 0-0

3rd 1-0

4th 2-1

5th 2-0

Expected Goals (xG)

Liepaja

1.43

Super Nova

1.05

Model SuggestionBTTS -12.9% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans BTTS, but EV is -12.9% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 
Highest raw EV: Away (+9.6%) — probability too low to qualify.

League Track Record ↗

Based on 43 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 67%

O2.5/Under 61%

BTTS/No 54%

Score Hit 56%

ROI -16.4%

Bet Hit 50% (10 bets)

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.75), Away GOOD (1.67)