Today / Latvia - Virsliga / Liepaja vs Super Nova

Liepaja vs Super Nova Prediction— Latvia - Virsliga

Regular Season - 17 ·Friday, June 12, 2026, 16:00

Liepaja

PPG 1.75 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Super Nova

PPG 1.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.8% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.4%0-18.8%0-24.6%0-31.6%0-4+0.5%1 1-012.0%1-112.6%1-26.6%1-32.3%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.6%2-19.0%2-24.7%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-04.1%3-14.3%3-22.2%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-02.0%4+-12.1%4+-21.1%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.1% 59.9% 1.67 -23.0%

Draw 27.1% 27.4% 3.65 -0.7%

Away win 26.8% 23.1% 4.33 +9.6%

Over 2.5 48.9% 58.8% 1.70 -16.9%

Over 3.5 28.1% 37.0% 2.70 -14.5%

BTTS 52.8% 60.6% 1.65 -12.9%

Home O1.5 41.6% 59.9% 1.67 -30.5%

Away O1.5 31.8% 33.3% 3.00 -4.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 81 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 53%

ROI 15.6%

Bet Hit 68%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 23%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob52.8%

H 46% / xG 1.4-1.0 / O2.5 49% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.6%

#2 0–0 8.4%

#3 1–0 12.0%

#4 2–1✓ 9.0%

#5 2–0 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Liepaja1.4

Super Nova1.0

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 48.9% · O3.5 PROB 28.1%

Form & verdict PPG

LIEPAJA · PPG 1.75

SUPER NOVA · PPG 1.67

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.75), Away GOOD (1.67)

Win probability 1X2

Liepaja (H) 46.1%

ODDS 1.67 · IMPLIED 59.9% EV -23.0%

Draw 27.1%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -0.7%

Super Nova (A) 26.8%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV +9.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Liepaja face Super Nova in Latvia - Virsliga on Friday, June 12, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Liepaja a 46% chance, the draw 27% and Super Nova 27%, so Liepaja are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Liepaja and 1.0 for Super Nova (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 49% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Liepaja are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 1.67 for Super Nova. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +9.6%. This match finished 2-1.

Liepaja vs Super Nova Prediction— Latvia - Virsliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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