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FS Jelgava vs Ogre United Prediction— Latvia - Virsliga

Regular Season - 18 ·Wednesday, June 17, 2026, 15:00

FS Jelgava

PPG 1.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Ogre United

PPG 0.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.9% vs bookmaker-implied 56.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.2%0-16.7%0-23.6%0-31.3%0-4+0.4%1 1-010.6%1-111.4%1-26.1%1-32.2%1-4+0.7%2 2-09.0%2-19.7%2-25.2%2-31.9%2-4+0.6%3 3-05.1%3-15.5%3-23.0%3-31.1%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-03.2%4+-13.4%4+-21.8%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 52.4% 1.45 -24.0%

Draw 24.2% 3.90 -3.4%

Away win 23.4% 6.25 +27.8%

Over 2.5 54.0% 1.70 -8.2%

Over 3.5 32.6% 2.70 -12.0%

BTTS 55.9% 1.77 -1.1%

Win probability 1X2

FS Jelgava (H) 52.4%

ODDS 1.45 · IMPLIED 69.0% EV -24.0%

Draw 24.2%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -3.4%

Ogre United (A) 23.4%

ODDS 6.25 · IMPLIED 16.0% EV +27.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 50 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 64%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 58%

ROI -24.0%

Bet Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 40%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob55.9%

H 52% / xG 1.7-1.1 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.4%

#2 2–1 9.7%

#3 2–0 9.0%

#4 1–0 10.6%

#5 0–0 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FS Jelgava1.7

Ogre United1.1

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 54.0% · O3.5 PROB 32.6%

Form & verdict PPG

FS JELGAVA · PPG 1.00

OGRE UNITED · PPG 0.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

40%

NEUTRAL

No PPG data

Match Preview & Prediction

FS Jelgava face Ogre United in Latvia - Virsliga on Wednesday, June 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FS Jelgava a 52% chance, the draw 24% and Ogre United 23%, so FS Jelgava are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for FS Jelgava and 1.1 for Ogre United (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FS Jelgava are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 0.00 for Ogre United. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +32.4%.

FS Jelgava vs Ogre United Prediction— Latvia - Virsliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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