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Daugavpils vs Super Nova Prediction— Latvia - Virsliga

Regular Season - 18 ·Tuesday, June 16, 2026, 15:00

Daugavpils

PPG 1.33 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

Super Nova

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.2%0-111.2%0-25.6%0-31.9%0-4+0.6%1 1-013.3%1-113.3%1-26.7%1-32.2%1-4+0.7%2 2-07.9%2-17.9%2-24.0%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-03.1%3-13.2%3-21.6%3-30.5%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-11.2%4+-20.6%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.5% 54.1% 1.85 -17.7%

Draw 28.4% 29.9% 3.35 -2.9%

Away win 27.1% 26.3% 3.80 +1.8%

Over 2.5 47.6% 54.1% 1.85 -11.9%

Over 3.5 28.1% 32.3% 3.10 -7.7%

BTTS 48.5% 58.8% 1.70 -17.5%

Home O1.5 39.2% 52.6% 1.90 -25.5%

Away O1.5 32.2% 33.3% 3.00 -3.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 81 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 53%

ROI 15.6%

Bet Hit 68%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 26%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob48.5%

H 44% / xG 1.2-1.0 / U2.5 48% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.3%

#2 0–0✓ 11.2%

#3 1–0 13.3%

#4 0–1 11.2%

#5 2–1 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Daugavpils1.2

Super Nova1.0

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.6% · O3.5 PROB 28.1%

Form & verdict PPG

DAUGAVPILS · PPG 1.33

SUPER NOVA · PPG 1.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.33), Away GOOD (1.50)

Win probability 1X2

Daugavpils (H) 44.5%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -17.7%

Draw 28.4%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -2.9%

Super Nova (A) 27.1%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV +1.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Daugavpils face Super Nova in Latvia - Virsliga on Tuesday, June 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Daugavpils a 45% chance, the draw 28% and Super Nova 27%, so Daugavpils are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Daugavpils and 1.0 for Super Nova (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Daugavpils are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 1.50 for Super Nova. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +1.8%. This match finished 0-0.

Daugavpils vs Super Nova Prediction— Latvia - Virsliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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