Today / Latvia - Virsliga / Grobina vs Liepaja

Grobina vs Liepaja Prediction— Latvia - Virsliga

Regular Season - 18 ·Tuesday, June 16, 2026, 16:00

Grobina

PPG 0.33 · HOME

UPCOMING

Liepaja

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.1%0-114.7%0-29.8%0-34.3%0-4+1.9%1 1-09.7%1-112.8%1-28.5%1-33.8%1-4+1.7%2 2-04.2%2-15.6%2-23.7%2-31.6%2-4+0.7%3 3-01.2%3-11.6%3-21.1%3-30.5%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.4%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 23.2% 3.60 -9.9%

Draw 28.9% 3.50 +0.7%

Away win 47.9% 1.85 -11.4%

Over 2.5 48.5% 1.80 -12.7%

Over 3.5 28.1% 3.00 -9.4%

BTTS 48.5% 1.67 -19.0%

Win probability 1X2

Grobina (H) 23.2%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -9.9%

Draw 28.9%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV +0.7%

Liepaja (A) 47.9%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -11.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 67%

O2.5 58%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 58%

ROI -24.0%

Bet Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 27%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob48.5%

A 48% / xG 0.9-1.3 / U2.5 48% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.8%

#2 0–0 11.1%

#3 0–1 14.7%

#4 0–2 9.8%

#5 1–2 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Grobina0.9

Liepaja1.3

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 48.5% · O3.5 PROB 28.1%

Form & verdict PPG

GROBINA · PPG 0.33

LIEPAJA · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: AVERAGE form (1.00) vs Home POOR (0.33)

Match Preview & Prediction

Grobina face Liepaja in Latvia - Virsliga on Tuesday, June 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Grobina a 23% chance, the draw 29% and Liepaja 48%, so Liepaja are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Grobina and 1.3 for Liepaja (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 49% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Grobina are averaging 0.33 points per game versus 1.00 for Liepaja. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +0.7%.

Grobina vs Liepaja Prediction— Latvia - Virsliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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