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Tukums vs Auda Prediction— Latvia - Virsliga

Regular Season - 18 ·Wednesday, June 17, 2026, 15:00

Tukums

PPG 1.11 · HOME

UPCOMING

Auda

PPG 2.38 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 64.1% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7% — a real, if thin, edge.

+3.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.7%0-15.3%0-25.3%0-33.5%0-4+2.8%1 1-04.3%1-18.6%1-28.7%1-35.8%1-4+4.6%2 2-03.5%2-17.0%2-27.0%2-34.7%2-4+3.7%3 3-01.9%3-13.8%3-23.8%3-32.6%3-4+2.0%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-12.2%4+-22.2%4+-31.5%4+-4+1.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 31.8% 3.95 +25.6%

Draw 22.5% 3.75 -9.4%

Away win 45.7% 1.73 -20.9%

Over 2.5 64.1% 1.62 +3.8%

Over 3.5 42.2% 2.50 +5.5%

BTTS 61.7% 1.55 -4.4%

Win probability 1X2

Tukums (H) 31.8%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV +25.6%

Draw 22.5%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -9.4%

Auda (A) 45.7%

ODDS 1.73 · IMPLIED 57.8% EV -20.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 50 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 64%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 58%

ROI -24.0%

Bet Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 53%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)2.0 BTTS prob61.7%

A 46% / xG 1.6-2.0 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.6%

#2 1–2 8.7%

#3 2–2 7.0%

#4 2–1 7.0%

#5 1–3 5.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Tukums1.6

Auda2.0

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.1% · O3.5 PROB 42.2%

Form & verdict PPG

TUKUMS · PPG 1.11

AUDA · PPG 2.38

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.38) vs Home AVERAGE (1.11)

Match Preview & Prediction

Tukums face Auda in Latvia - Virsliga on Wednesday, June 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Tukums a 32% chance, the draw 23% and Auda 46%, so Auda are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Tukums and 2.0 for Auda (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Tukums are averaging 1.11 points per game versus 2.38 for Auda. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +39.3%.

Tukums vs Auda Prediction— Latvia - Virsliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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