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Tukums vs Daugavpils Prediction— Latvia - Virsliga

Regular Season - 17 ·Friday, June 12, 2026, 15:00

Tukums

PPG 1.13 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Daugavpils

PPG 0.86 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 64.8% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8% — a clear edge.

+10.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.7%0-14.0%0-22.9%0-31.4%0-4+0.7%1 1-05.9%1-18.5%1-26.2%1-33.0%1-4+1.5%2 2-06.3%2-19.2%2-26.6%2-33.2%2-4+1.6%3 3-04.5%3-16.5%3-24.8%3-32.3%3-4+1.2%4+ 4+-04.0%4+-15.8%4+-24.2%4+-32.0%4+-4+1.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.9% 40.8% 2.45 +19.8%

Draw 22.0% 29.0% 3.45 -14.5%

Away win 29.1% 40.8% 2.45 -17.2%

Over 2.5 64.8% 58.8% 1.70 +10.2%

Over 3.5 42.0% 36.4% 2.75 +15.5%

BTTS 62.2% 64.5% 1.55 -3.6%

Home O1.5 61.0% 47.6% 2.10 +28.1%

Away O1.5 43.2% 47.6% 2.10 -9.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 81 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 53%

ROI 15.6%

Bet Hit 68%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 56%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob62.2%

H 49% / xG 2.1-1.5 / O2.5 65% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 8.5%

#2 2–1 9.2%

#3 2–2 6.6%

#4 3–1 6.5%

#5 2–0 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Tukums2.1

Daugavpils1.5

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.8% · O3.5 PROB 42.0%

Form & verdict PPG

TUKUMS · PPG 1.13

DAUGAVPILS · PPG 0.86

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.13), Away POOR (0.86)

Win probability 1X2

Tukums (H) 48.9%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV +19.8%

Draw 22.0%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -14.5%

Daugavpils (A) 29.1%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV -17.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Tukums face Daugavpils in Latvia - Virsliga on Friday, June 12, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Tukums a 49% chance, the draw 22% and Daugavpils 29%, so Tukums are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Tukums and 1.5 for Daugavpils (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Tukums are averaging 1.13 points per game versus 0.86 for Daugavpils. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +54.9%. This match finished 1-1.

Tukums vs Daugavpils Prediction— Latvia - Virsliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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