Tukums vs Daugavpils Prediction— Latvia - Virsliga

Latvia - Virsliga Regular Season - 17 Friday, June 12, 2026 15:00

Tukums PPG 1.13

VS PENDING

Daugavpils PPG 0.86

Home + Over 2.5· +54.9% ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Tukums face Daugavpils in Latvia - Virsliga on Friday, June 12, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Tukums a 49% chance, the draw 22% and Daugavpils 29%, so Tukums are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Tukums and 1.5 for Daugavpils (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Tukums are averaging 1.13 points per game versus 0.86 for Daugavpils. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +54.9%.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 48.9%

Odds: 2.45 EV: +19.8%

Draw 22.0%

Odds: 3.45 EV: -14.5%

Away 29.1%

Odds: 2.45 EV: -17.2%

Model lean: Over 2.5

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 64.8% Odds: 1.70 +10.2%

Over 3.5 42.0% Odds: 2.75 +15.5%

BTTS 62.2% Odds: 1.55 -3.6%

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1

2nd 2-1

3rd 2-2

4th 3-1

5th 2-0

Expected Goals (xG)

Tukums

2.15

Daugavpils

1.45

Model SuggestionOver 2.5 +10.2% ROI TRACKS: Over 2.5
Tracked ROI market: Over 2.5. 
Raw EV leader: Home + Over 2.5(+54.9%)

League Track Record ↗

Based on 43 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 67%

O2.5/Under 61%

BTTS/No 54%

Score Hit 56%

ROI -16.4%

Bet Hit 50% (10 bets)

Verdict & Form

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.13), Away POOR (0.86)