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Ogre United vs Riga FC Prediction— Latvia - Virsliga

Regular Season - 17 ·Saturday, June 13, 2026, 11:00

Ogre United

PPG 0.50 · HOME

1 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY O1.5

Riga FC

PPG 2.38 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away Over 1.5

Model probability 82.4% vs bookmaker-implied 87.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.1%0-13.9%0-27.4%0-39.2%0-4+22.9%1 1-00.9%1-13.2%1-26.0%1-37.5%1-4+18.6%2 2-00.3%2-11.3%2-22.4%2-33.0%2-4+7.5%3 3-00.1%3-10.3%3-20.7%3-30.8%3-4+2.0%4+ 4+-00.0%4+-10.1%4+-20.2%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 11.5% 5.0% 20.00 +78.0%

Draw 19.0% 12.5% 8.00 +31.2%

Away win 69.6% 92.6% 1.08 -24.8%

Over 2.5 72.0% 80.0% 1.25 -10.0%

Over 3.5 47.0% 60.6% 1.65 -22.4%

BTTS 52.4% 47.6% 2.10 +10.0%

Home O1.5 33.0% 17.4% 5.75 +89.8%

Away O1.5 82.4% 87.0% 1.15 -5.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 81 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 53%

ROI 15.6%

Bet Hit 68%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 4 64%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)3.7 BTTS prob52.4%

A 70% / xG 0.8-3.7 / O2.5 72% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–3 9.2%

#2 0–4 8.6%

#3 1–3 7.5%

#4 0–2 7.4%

#5 1–4✓ 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ogre United0.8

Riga FC3.7

COMBINED 4.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 72.0% · O3.5 PROB 47.0%

Form & verdict PPG

OGRE UNITED · PPG 0.50

RIGA FC · PPG 2.38

✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

90%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.38) vs Home POOR (0.50)

Win probability 1X2

Ogre United (H) 11.5%

ODDS 20.00 · IMPLIED 5.0% EV +78.0%

Draw 19.0%

ODDS 8.00 · IMPLIED 12.5% EV +31.2%

Riga FC (A) 69.6%

ODDS 1.08 · IMPLIED 92.6% EV -24.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ogre United face Riga FC in Latvia - Virsliga on Saturday, June 13, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ogre United a 12% chance, the draw 19% and Riga FC 70%, so Riga FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Ogre United and 3.7 for Riga FC (4.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-3. There is a 72% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ogre United are averaging 0.50 points per game versus 2.38 for Riga FC. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +89.8%. This match finished 1-4.

Ogre United vs Riga FC Prediction— Latvia - Virsliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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