Today / Latvia - Virsliga / Grobina vs RFS

Grobina vs RFS Prediction— Latvia - Virsliga

Regular Season - 17 ·Saturday, June 13, 2026, 13:00

Grobina

PPG 0.38 · HOME

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

RFS

PPG 3.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 69.1% vs bookmaker-implied 84.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.9%0-115.1%0-216.7%0-312.3%0-4+11.4%1 1-03.2%1-17.1%1-27.9%1-35.8%1-4+5.4%2 2-00.8%2-11.7%2-21.9%2-31.4%2-4+1.3%3 3-00.1%3-10.3%3-20.3%3-30.2%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.0%4+-10.0%4+-20.0%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 11.6% 7.7% 13.00 +30.5%

Draw 19.3% 18.2% 5.50 +3.7%

Away win 69.1% 84.7% 1.18 -18.5%

Over 2.5 54.4% 67.6% 1.48 -19.5%

Over 3.5 32.5% 46.5% 2.15 -30.1%

BTTS 47.6% 50.0% 2.00 -4.8%

Home O1.5 20.0% 18.2% 5.50 +6.0%

Away O1.5 64.7% 80.0% 1.25 -19.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 81 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 53%

ROI 15.6%

Bet Hit 68%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 3 48%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)0.5 xG (away)2.2 BTTS prob47.6%

A 69% / xG 0.5-2.2 / O2.5 54% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–2 16.7%

#2 0–1 15.1%

#3 0–3 12.3%

#4 1–1 7.1%

#5 0–0 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Grobina0.5

RFS2.2

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 54.4% · O3.5 PROB 32.5%

Form & verdict PPG

GROBINA · PPG 0.38

RFS · PPG 3.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (3.00) vs Home POOR (0.38)

Win probability 1X2

Grobina (H) 11.6%

ODDS 13.00 · IMPLIED 7.7% EV +30.5%

Draw 19.3%

ODDS 5.50 · IMPLIED 18.2% EV +3.7%

RFS (A) 69.1%

ODDS 1.18 · IMPLIED 84.7% EV -18.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Grobina face RFS in Latvia - Virsliga on Saturday, June 13, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Grobina a 12% chance, the draw 19% and RFS 69%, so RFS are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.5 for Grobina and 2.2 for RFS (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-2. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Grobina are averaging 0.38 points per game versus 3.00 for RFS. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +30.5%. This match finished 1-3.

Grobina vs RFS Prediction— Latvia - Virsliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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