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Auda vs FS Jelgava Prediction— Latvia - Virsliga

Regular Season - 17 ·Saturday, June 13, 2026, 15:00

Auda

PPG 1.88 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

FS Jelgava

PPG 0.88 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 66.5% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.9%0-12.9%0-21.1%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-09.7%1-17.3%1-22.8%1-30.7%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.1%2-19.1%2-23.4%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-010.0%3-17.6%3-22.9%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-011.4%4+-18.6%4+-23.2%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 66.5% 69.4% 1.44 -4.2%

Draw 19.3% 23.8% 4.20 -11.4%

Away win 14.3% 16.0% 6.25 -6.4%

Over 2.5 63.4% 60.6% 1.65 +4.6%

Over 3.5 39.8% 38.5% 2.60 +3.5%

BTTS 51.3% 57.8% 1.73 -11.3%

Home O1.5 61.0% 67.6% 1.48 -9.7%

Away O1.5 24.3% 26.7% 3.75 -5.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 81 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 53%

ROI 15.6%

Bet Hit 68%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 51%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)2.5 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob51.3%

H 66% / xG 2.5-0.8 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 51%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 12.1%

#2 3–0 10.0%

#3 2–1 9.1%

#4 1–0 9.7%

#5 1–1✓ 7.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Auda2.5

FS Jelgava0.8

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.4% · O3.5 PROB 39.8%

Form & verdict PPG

AUDA · PPG 1.88

FS JELGAVA · PPG 0.88

✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

95%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in GOOD form (1.88), Away POOR (0.88) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Auda (H) 66.5%

ODDS 1.44 · IMPLIED 69.4% EV -4.2%

Draw 19.3%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -11.4%

FS Jelgava (A) 14.3%

ODDS 6.25 · IMPLIED 16.0% EV -6.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Auda face FS Jelgava in Latvia - Virsliga on Saturday, June 13, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Auda a 67% chance, the draw 19% and FS Jelgava 14%, so Auda are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.5 for Auda and 0.8 for FS Jelgava (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Auda are averaging 1.88 points per game versus 0.88 for FS Jelgava. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +18.1%. This match finished 1-1.

Auda vs FS Jelgava Prediction— Latvia - Virsliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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