Auda vs FS Jelgava Prediction— Latvia - Virsliga

Latvia - Virsliga Regular Season - 17 Skonto stadions· Riga Saturday, June 13, 2026 15:00

Auda PPG 1.88

VS PENDING

FS Jelgava PPG 0.88

Home + Over 2.5· +18.1% ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

95% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Auda face FS Jelgava in Latvia - Virsliga on Saturday, June 13, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Auda a 67% chance, the draw 19% and FS Jelgava 14%, so Auda are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.5 for Auda and 0.8 for FS Jelgava (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Auda are averaging 1.88 points per game versus 0.88 for FS Jelgava. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +18.1%.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 66.5%

Odds: 1.44 EV: -4.2%

Draw 19.3%

Odds: 4.20 EV: -11.4%

Away 14.3%

Odds: 6.25 EV: -6.4%

Model lean: Home Not tracked as an official bet.

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 63.4% Odds: 1.65 +4.6%

Over 3.5 39.8% Odds: 2.60 +3.5%

BTTS 51.3% Odds: 1.73 -11.3%

Correct Score Picks

1st 2-0

2nd 3-0

3rd 2-1

4th 1-0

5th 1-1

Expected Goals (xG)

Auda

2.50

FS Jelgava

0.76

Model SuggestionHome -4.2% EXCLUDED FROM ROI
ROI tracking: excluded — EV is negative (-4.2%), so the model expects this bet to lose money at the offered odds.

League Track Record ↗

Based on 45 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 67%

O2.5/Under 58%

BTTS/No 56%

Score Hit 58%

ROI -24.0%

Bet Hit 46% (11 bets)

Verdict & Form

✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

95%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in GOOD form (1.88), Away POOR (0.88) - Strong consensus