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FS Jelgava vs Daugavpils Prediction— Latvia - Virsliga

Matchday 16 ·Sunday, May 31, 2026, 13:00

FS Jelgava

PPG 1.00 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLWW

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Daugavpils

PPG 0.83 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWWDL

// Model verdict

BTTS 60% chance

Model probability 55.3% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.9%0-110.9%0-28.5%0-34.5%0-4+2.5%1 1-07.6%1-112.0%1-29.4%1-34.9%1-4+2.7%2 2-04.2%2-16.6%2-25.2%2-32.7%2-4+1.5%3 3-01.5%3-12.4%3-21.9%3-31.0%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.8%4+-20.7%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 28.6% 41.7% 2.40 -18.8%

Draw 25.6% 29.9% 3.35 -8.5%

Away win 45.8% 39.2% 2.55 +16.8%

Over 2.5 54.5% 55.6% 1.80 -1.9%

Over 3.5 32.2% 33.3% 3.00 -3.4%

BTTS 55.3% 61.7% 1.62 -10.4%

Home O1.5 30.2% 45.5% 2.20 -33.6%

Away O1.5 46.5% 43.5% 2.30 +7.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 100 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 55%

ROI 20.6%

Bet Hit 72%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 33%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob55.3%

A 46% / xG 1.1-1.6 / O2.5 55% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 12.0%

#2 1–2 9.4%

#3 0–1 10.9%

#4 0–0 6.9%

#5 0–2 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FS Jelgava1.1

Daugavpils1.6

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 54.5% · O3.5 PROB 32.2%

Form & verdict PPG

FS JELGAVA · PPG 1.00

DAUGAVPILS · PPG 0.83

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

Chance this pick lands

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.00), Away POOR (0.83)

Win probability 1X2

FS Jelgava (H) 28.6%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV -18.8%

Draw 25.6%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -8.5%

Daugavpils (A) 45.8%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV +16.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

FS Jelgava face Daugavpils in Latvia - Virsliga on Sunday, May 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FS Jelgava a 29% chance, the draw 26% and Daugavpils 46%, so Daugavpils are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for FS Jelgava and 1.6 for Daugavpils (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FS Jelgava are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 0.83 for Daugavpils. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +16.8%. This match finished 1-1.

FS Jelgava vs Daugavpils Prediction— Latvia - Virsliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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