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Nomme Utd vs Levadia Prediction— Estonia - Meistriliiga

Regular Season - 16 ·Wednesday, June 17, 2026, 16:00

Nomme Utd

PPG 1.29 · HOME

UPCOMING

Levadia

PPG 2.75 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 5.0 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 77.0% vs bookmaker-implied 78.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.6%0-12.4%0-24.5%0-35.5%0-4+13.4%1 1-00.9%1-13.2%1-25.9%1-37.3%1-4+17.8%2 2-00.6%2-12.1%2-24.0%2-34.9%2-4+11.9%3 3-00.3%3-10.9%3-21.8%3-32.2%3-4+5.3%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.4%4+-20.8%4+-31.0%4+-4+2.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 12.6% 13.00 +38.3%

Draw 17.9% 6.50 +9.8%

Away win 69.5% 1.17 -18.7%

Over 2.5 77.0% 1.28 -1.4%

Over 3.5 53.2% 1.67 -11.2%

BTTS 63.4% 1.75 +10.9%

Win probability 1X2

Nomme Utd (H) 12.6%

ODDS 13.00 · IMPLIED 7.7% EV +38.3%

Draw 17.9%

ODDS 6.50 · IMPLIED 15.4% EV +9.8%

Levadia (A) 69.5%

ODDS 1.17 · IMPLIED 85.5% EV -18.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 31 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 39%

ROI -13.0%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 4 80%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)3.7 BTTS prob63.4%

A 70% / xG 1.3-3.7 / O2.5 77% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–3 7.3%

#2 1–4 6.8%

#3 1–2 5.9%

#4 0–3 5.5%

#5 0–4 5.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Nomme Utd1.3

Levadia3.7

COMBINED 5.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 77.0% · O3.5 PROB 53.2%

Form & verdict PPG

NOMME UTD · PPG 1.29

LEVADIA · PPG 2.75

✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

90%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.75) vs Home AVERAGE (1.29)

Match Preview & Prediction

Nomme Utd face Levadia in Estonia - Meistriliiga on Wednesday, June 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Nomme Utd a 13% chance, the draw 18% and Levadia 70%, so Levadia are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Nomme Utd and 3.7 for Levadia (5.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-3. There is a 77% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Nomme Utd are averaging 1.29 points per game versus 2.75 for Levadia. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +93.5%.

Nomme Utd vs Levadia Prediction— Estonia - Meistriliiga

Match Preview & Prediction

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