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Kuressaare vs Narva Trans Prediction— Estonia - Meistriliiga

Regular Season - 16 ·Tuesday, June 16, 2026, 16:00

Kuressaare

PPG 1.29 · HOME

UPCOMING

Narva Trans

PPG 0.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 62.0% vs bookmaker-implied 42.6% — a clear edge.

+45.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.7%0-13.8%0-21.6%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-010.5%1-18.6%1-23.5%1-31.0%1-4+0.2%2 2-011.8%2-19.6%2-24.0%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-08.8%3-17.2%3-23.0%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-08.3%4+-16.8%4+-22.8%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 62.0% 2.35 +45.7%

Draw 20.5% 3.45 -17.6%

Away win 17.5% 2.60 -32.7%

Over 2.5 61.1% 1.70 +3.9%

Over 3.5 37.0% 2.75 +1.8%

BTTS 52.6% 1.55 -18.5%

Win probability 1X2

Kuressaare (H) 62.0%

ODDS 2.35 · IMPLIED 42.6% EV +45.7%

Draw 20.5%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -17.6%

Narva Trans (A) 17.5%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV -32.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 29 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 38%

ROI -3.3%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 55%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob52.6%

H 62% / xG 2.2-0.8 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 11.8%

#2 1–1 8.6%

#3 2–1 9.6%

#4 1–0 10.5%

#5 3–0 8.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Kuressaare2.2

Narva Trans0.8

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.1% · O3.5 PROB 37.0%

Form & verdict PPG

KURESSAARE · PPG 1.29

NARVA TRANS · PPG 0.00

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

40%

NEUTRAL

No PPG data

Match Preview & Prediction

Kuressaare face Narva Trans in Estonia - Meistriliiga on Tuesday, June 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Kuressaare a 62% chance, the draw 21% and Narva Trans 18%, so Kuressaare are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Kuressaare and 0.8 for Narva Trans (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Kuressaare are averaging 1.29 points per game versus 0.00 for Narva Trans. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +65.9%.

Kuressaare vs Narva Trans Prediction— Estonia - Meistriliiga

Match Preview & Prediction

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